Wager
Q1 ML away
Best number on this game is Q1 ML away, +4.4 against the sharp line.
The model has Seattle Seahawks ahead at the end of the quarter 42% of the time, Chicago Bears 37%, and the quarter level 22%, with 9.5 pts projected. Seattle Seahawks gets on the board 68% of the time and Chicago Bears 66%; the opening drive ends in points 42% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 92% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick.
Q1 total (model)
9.5
Sharp line 9.5
SEA leads after Q1
42%
CHI 37%, level 22%
CHI scores in Q1
66%
context only, no pick
SEA scores in Q1
68%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
42%
league 42%
Game total (model)
46.7
Sharp line 46.5
Similar games, Q1 scored
100%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
Chicago Bears scores in the 1st quarter
66%
Context only: its offence against SEA’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Seattle Seahawks scores in the 1st quarter
68%
Context only: its offence against CHI’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
42%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
92%
Context only: scoreless the other 8%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
CHI
37%
Chicago Bears leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 66%, context only
SEA
42%
Seattle Seahawks leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 68%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 42%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
CHI
We give them a 39% chance,
+1.2 edge at +155
Game margin
SEA
−3.5
The book is at -3.5, no side
Total points in the game
46.7
The book is at 46.5,
we like the over, +0.6 edge
The model has Chicago Bears winning 39% of the time, +1.2 better than the sharp line’s +155 implies. We project Seattle Seahawks by 3.5 pts against a posted SEA -3.5, close enough to the line that we name no side. 46.7 pts projected in total against a posted 46.5: we like the over, +0.6.
Model notes: fg_spread home/away retired from ★ picks
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
50%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
9.5
Open, 9.5
unchanged
Now, 9.5
Q1 spread (H)
-0.5
Open, -0.5
unchanged
Now, -0.5
Q1 ML home
-148
Open, -148
unchanged
Now, -148
Q1 ML away
+129
Open, +129
unchanged
Now, +129
FG total
46.5
Open, 46.5
unchanged
Now, 46.5
FG spread (H)
-3.5
Open, -3.5
unchanged
Now, -3.5
FG ML home
-177
▼ from
-175
Open, -175
moved -2
Now, -177
FG ML away
+155
▲ from
+154
Open, +154
moved +1
Now, +155
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Sharp line | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model SEA 42% / tie 22% / CHI 37% | (+129) | +115 | CHI | +4.4 | Wager |
| 1st quarter total we project 9.5 pts | 9.5 (-114) | +101 | Under 9.5 | -1.4 | — |
| 1st quarter margin we project SEA by 0.5 | -0.5 (+109) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets | |||||
| Moneyline model SEA 61% | (+155) | +155 | CHI | +1.2 | — |
| Spread model SEA -3.5 | -3.5 (+107) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Game total model 46.7 pts | 46.5 (-108) | -102 | Over 46.5 | +0.6 | — |
Every change we made, and why
Wed 2:33p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.4pp
to 68.3pp.
+2.9pp ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.4pp
to 41.9pp.
+2.5pp ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.0pp
to 36.5pp.
-2.5pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.66
to 9.52.
+0.9 ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.04
to 0.51.
+0.5 ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.56
to 46.55.
+2.0 ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.49
to -3.51.
-1.0 ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
FG win prob home moved from 57.7pp
to 60.8pp.
+3.1pp ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Wed 2:33p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Wed 2:28p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 68.3pp
to 65.4pp.
-2.9pp ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 41.9pp
to 39.4pp.
-2.5pp ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 36.5pp
to 39.0pp.
+2.5pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.52
to 8.66.
-0.9 ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.51
to 0.04.
-0.5 ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
FG total (model) moved from 46.55
to 44.56.
-2.0 ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -3.51
to -2.49.
+1.0 ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
FG win prob home moved from 60.8pp
to 57.7pp.
-3.1pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.4pp
to 68.3pp.
+2.9pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.4pp
to 41.9pp.
+2.5pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.0pp
to 36.5pp.
-2.5pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.71
to 9.52.
+0.8 ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.04
to 0.51.
+0.5 ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.79
to 46.64.
+1.9 ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.49
to -3.51.
-1.0 ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
FG win prob home moved from 57.7pp
to 60.8pp.
+3.1pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Wed 2:13p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Wed 2:08p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 68.3pp
to 65.4pp.
-2.9pp ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 41.9pp
to 39.4pp.
-2.5pp ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 36.5pp
to 39.0pp.
+2.5pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.52
to 8.71.
-0.8 ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.51
to 0.04.
-0.5 ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
FG total (model) moved from 46.64
to 44.79.
-1.9 ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -3.51
to -2.49.
+1.0 ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
FG win prob home moved from 60.8pp
to 57.7pp.
-3.1pp ▼
Wed 12:22p ET
Wind moved from 7.0mph
to 15.0mph.
+8mph ▲
Wed 9:19a ET
Conditions changed from Rain
to Clouds.
noted
Wed 8:19a ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Rain.
noted
Wed 5:17a ET
Conditions changed from Rain
to Clouds.
noted
Wed 2:15a ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Rain.
noted
Wed 12:14a ET
First numbers published.
Q1 total projected 9.5.
noted
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Oct 9, 2022
DET @ NE
/ 46.5 / -3
NE 29: DET 0
3
FG, NE
Dec 29, 2024
ATL @ WAS
/ 46.5 / -3.5
WAS 30: ATL 24
14
TD, WAS
Jan 22, 2023
DAL @ SF
/ 46.5 / -3.5
SF 19: DAL 12
3
FG, SF
Oct 16, 2022
SF @ ATL
/ 46 / +3.5
ATL 28: SF 14
14
TD, ATL
Nov 5, 2023
DAL @ PHI
/ 46.5 / -3.5
PHI 28: DAL 23
14
TD, PHI
Sep 11, 2022
NE @ MIA
/ 47 / -3
MIA 20: NE 7
3
FG, MIA
Oct 9, 2022
MIA @ NYJ
/ 46 / +3
NYJ 40: MIA 17
5
SAFETY, NYJ
Oct 12, 2025
SF @ TB
/ 46.5 / -3.5
TB 30: SF 19
10
TD, TB
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
100% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 8.2
, opening drive scored 12%