Lean
FG Total Under
Best number on this game is FG Total Under, +2.6 against the sharp line.
The model has Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead at the end of the quarter 42% of the time, Atlanta Falcons 37%, and the quarter level 22%, with 7.6 pts projected. Tampa Bay Buccaneers gets on the board 64% of the time and Atlanta Falcons 62%; the opening drive ends in points 42% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 90% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick. Weather moves the Q1 projection by -0.5 pts.
Q1 total (model)
7.6
Sharp line 7.5
TB leads after Q1
42%
ATL 37%, level 22%
ATL scores in Q1
62%
context only, no pick
TB scores in Q1
64%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
42%
league 42%
Game total (model)
44.1
Sharp line 45
Similar games, Q1 scored
62%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
Atlanta Falcons scores in the 1st quarter
62%
Context only: its offence against TB’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers scores in the 1st quarter
64%
Context only: its offence against ATL’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
42%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
90%
Context only: scoreless the other 10%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
ATL
37%
Atlanta Falcons leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 62%, context only
TB
42%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 64%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 36%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
TB
We give them a 57% chance,
+0.4 edge at -141
Game margin
TB
−2.4
The book is at -2.5, no side
Total points in the game
44.1
The book is at 45,
we like the under, +2.6 edge
The model has Tampa Bay Buccaneers winning 57% of the time, +0.4 better than the sharp line’s -141 implies. We project Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2.4 pts against a posted TB -2.5, close enough to the line that we name no side. 44.1 pts projected in total against a posted 45: we like the under, +2.6. Weather moves the full-game total by -2 pts.
Model notes: fg_spread home/away retired from ★ picks
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
40%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
7.5
Open, 7.5
unchanged
Now, 7.5
Q1 spread (H)
-0.5
Open, -0.5
unchanged
Now, -0.5
Q1 ML home
-129
▼ from
-126
Open, -126
moved -3
Now, -129
Q1 ML away
+113
▲ from
+110
Open, +110
moved +3
Now, +113
FG total
45
Open, 45
unchanged
Now, 45
FG spread (H)
-2.5
▼ from
-2
Open, -2
moved -0.5
Now, -2.5
FG ML home
-141
▼ from
-135
Open, -135
moved -6
Now, -141
FG ML away
+125
▲ from
+120
Open, +120
moved +5
Now, +125
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Sharp line | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model TB 42% / tie 22% / ATL 37% | (+113) | +114 | ATL | +1.3 | — |
| 1st quarter total we project 7.6 pts | 7.5 (-114) | +102 | Under 7.5 | -1.6 | — |
| 1st quarter margin we project TB by 0.5 | -0.5 (+124) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets | |||||
| Moneyline model TB 57% | (-141) | -134 | TB | +0.4 | — |
| Spread model TB -2.4 | -2.5 (-109) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Game total model 44.1 pts | 45 (-109) | -112 | Under 45 | +2.6 | Lean |
Every change we made, and why
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.0pp
to 89.5pp.
-1.5pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.3pp
to 63.8pp.
-1.5pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.6pp
to 61.7pp.
-3.9pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.1pp
to 41.7pp.
+2.6pp ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.3pp
to 36.7pp.
-2.6pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.24
to 7.56.
-0.7 ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.02
to 0.49.
+0.5 ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
FG total (model) moved from 41.86
to 44.06.
+2.2 ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.63
to -2.36.
-0.7 ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
FG win prob home moved from 55.0pp
to 57.3pp.
+2.3pp ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Wed 2:33p ET
Top market changed from —
to FG Total Under.
noted
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.5pp
to 91.0pp.
+1.5pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 63.8pp
to 65.3pp.
+1.5pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 61.7pp
to 65.6pp.
+3.9pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 41.7pp
to 39.1pp.
-2.6pp ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 36.7pp
to 39.3pp.
+2.6pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.56
to 8.24.
+0.7 ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.49
to -0.02.
-0.5 ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.06
to 41.86.
-2.2 ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.36
to -1.63.
+0.7 ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
FG win prob home moved from 57.3pp
to 55.0pp.
-2.3pp ▼
Wed 2:23p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.95
to -2.36.
-0.4 ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.0pp
to 89.5pp.
-1.5pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.3pp
to 63.8pp.
-1.5pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.6pp
to 61.7pp.
-3.9pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.1pp
to 41.7pp.
+2.6pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.3pp
to 36.7pp.
-2.6pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.24
to 7.56.
-0.7 ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.02
to 0.49.
+0.5 ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
FG total (model) moved from 41.86
to 44.06.
+2.2 ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.63
to -1.95.
-0.3 ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Wed 2:13p ET
Top market changed from —
to FG Total Under.
noted
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.5pp
to 91.0pp.
+1.5pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 63.8pp
to 65.3pp.
+1.5pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 61.7pp
to 65.6pp.
+3.9pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 41.7pp
to 39.1pp.
-2.6pp ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 36.7pp
to 39.3pp.
+2.6pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.56
to 8.24.
+0.7 ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.49
to -0.02.
-0.5 ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.06
to 41.86.
-2.2 ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.95
to -1.63.
+0.3 ▲
Wed 12:14a ET
First numbers published.
Q1 total projected 7.6.
noted
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Nov 13, 2022
SEA @ TB
/ 45 / -2.5
TB 21: SEA 16
0
scoreless
Oct 16, 2022
MIN @ MIA
/ 45 / +3
MIA 16: MIN 24
0
scoreless
Sep 28, 2023
DET @ GB
/ 45 / +2.5
GB 20: DET 34
17
FG, GB
Oct 31, 2022
CIN @ CLE
/ 45 / +3
CLE 32: CIN 13
0
scoreless
Sep 25, 2022
BAL @ NE
/ 45.5 / +2.5
NE 26: BAL 37
7
TD, BAL
Sep 11, 2023
BUF @ NYJ
/ 44.5 / +2.5
NYJ 22: BUF 16
3
FG, BUF
Sep 17, 2023
LAC @ TEN
/ 45.5 / +2.5
TEN 27: LAC 24
3
FG, LAC
Oct 8, 2023
DAL @ SF
/ 45 / -3.5
SF 42: DAL 10
7
TD, SF
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
62% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 4.6
, opening drive scored 12%