Trends, refreshed Tue 12:23p ET

The slate at a glance.

14 games live data

Biggest edges

The widest gaps between our number and the book, across every market we price

Nothing on this slate carries a positive edge against the book right now.

Home team leads after Q1

14 games, model probability, sorted high to low
Model probability that the home team is ahead when the 1st quarter ends The second figure is how often the quarter ends level The sharp line has never posted a 1st-quarter line on an NFL regular-season game, so there is no market number to sit beside it

Q1 offence, top 10

Q1 points per game, 2022–2025
# Team Q1 pts Scores in Q1 Opens scoring Open drive
1 DET 5.9 75% 57% 46%
2 PHI 5.6 70% 56% 61%
3 SEA 5.3 68% 44% 48%
4 BUF 5.3 75% 46% 43%
5 CIN 5.3 71% 57% 59%
6 SF 5.2 74% 57% 60%
7 DAL 5.2 76% 48% 40%
8 IND 4.9 68% 49% 45%
9 BAL 4.8 75% 58% 44%
10 MIA 4.7 70% 47% 50%

Q1 defence, top 10

Lowest rate of allowing a Q1 score, 2022–2025
# Team Allows Q1 score Q1 pts allowed Q1 margin Games
1 SF 55% 3.8 +1.4 76
2 GB 56% 3.1 +1.5 72
3 BAL 56% 3.0 +1.8 73
4 LAC 56% 4.0 +0.5 71
5 CIN 59% 3.8 +1.5 70
6 CAR 59% 3.9 -0.9 69
7 KC 60% 3.5 +0.9 78
8 PHI 61% 4.1 +1.5 77
9 MIA 61% 4.7 -0.0 70
10 JAX 62% 4.1 -0.1 71

Market disagreement, model vs the sharp line

Full-game total, x = sharp line, y = our projection, diagonal = agreement

No game on this slate has both a model total and a posted sharp-line total yet.

Graded record

Every ★ pick that has finished and settled
Hit rate
40.3%
Net units
-8.2u
ROI
-4.4%
Graded
154

Edges by market

Average positive edge on this slate, not a season average

No market on this slate carries a positive edge.