Gold
Q1 ML away
Best number on this game is Q1 ML away, +11.0 against the sharp line.
The model has Washington Commanders ahead at the end of the quarter 41% of the time, Philadelphia Eagles 37%, and the quarter level 22%, with 7.1 pts projected. Washington Commanders gets on the board 63% of the time and Philadelphia Eagles 61%; the opening drive ends in points 42% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 89% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick.
Q1 total (model)
7.1
Sharp line 7
WSH leads after Q1
41%
PHI 37%, level 22%
PHI scores in Q1
61%
context only, no pick
WSH scores in Q1
63%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
42%
league 42%
Game total (model)
40.7
Sharp line 40.5
Similar games, Q1 scored
100%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
Philadelphia Eagles scores in the 1st quarter
61%
Context only: its offence against WSH’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Washington Commanders scores in the 1st quarter
63%
Context only: its offence against PHI’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
42%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
89%
Context only: scoreless the other 11%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
PHI
37%
Philadelphia Eagles leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 61%, context only
WSH
41%
Washington Commanders leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 63%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 34%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
—
No edge on this market. We have WSH at 62%.
Game margin
WSH
−3.8
The book is at -5.5, no side
Total points in the game
40.7
The book is at 40.5,
we like the over, +1.7 edge
The model has Washington Commanders winning 62% of the time, level with the sharp line’s price: no side on the moneyline. We project Washington Commanders by 3.8 pts against a posted WSH -5.5, close enough to the line that we name no side. 40.7 pts projected in total against a posted 40.5: we like the over, +1.7.
Model notes: fg_spread home/away retired from ★ picks; fg_ml withheld: 7.5pp is at or above this market's 6.0pp ceiling
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
88%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
7
Open, 7
unchanged
Now, 7
Q1 spread (H)
-0.5
Open, -0.5
unchanged
Now, -0.5
Q1 ML home
-195
▼ from
-189
Open, -189
moved -6
Now, -195
Q1 ML away
+166
▲ from
+161
Open, +161
moved +5
Now, +166
FG total
40.5
Open, 40.5
unchanged
Now, 40.5
FG spread (H)
-5.5
▼ from
-4.5
Open, -4.5
moved -1
Now, -5.5
FG ML home
-250
▼ from
-237
Open, -237
moved -13
Now, -250
FG ML away
+213
▲ from
+203
Open, +203
moved +10
Now, +213
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Sharp line | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model WSH 41% / tie 22% / PHI 37% | (+166) | +112 | PHI | +11.0 ★ | Gold |
| 1st quarter total we project 7.1 pts | 7 (+111) | +102 | Under 7 | +3.8 | Lean |
| 1st quarter margin we project WSH by 0.4 | -0.5 (-103) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets | |||||
| Moneyline model WSH 62% | (-250) | -160 | no bet | — | — |
| Spread model WSH -3.8 | -5.5 (-111) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Game total model 40.7 pts | 40.5 (-103) | -102 | Over 40.5 | +1.7 | Lean |
Every change we made, and why
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.0pp
to 88.9pp.
-2.1pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 64.7pp
to 62.6pp.
-2.1pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 66.2pp
to 60.7pp.
-5.5pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 38.2pp
to 41.4pp.
+3.2pp ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 40.2pp
to 37.0pp.
-3.2pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.75
to 7.08.
-1.7 ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.19
to 0.42.
+0.6 ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.04
to 40.7.
-3.3 ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
FG spread (model) moved from 0.9
to -3.78.
-4.7 ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
FG win prob home moved from 47.2pp
to 61.6pp.
+14.4pp ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Tier changed from —
to gold.
noted
Wed 2:33p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 88.9pp
to 91.0pp.
+2.1pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 62.6pp
to 64.7pp.
+2.1pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 60.7pp
to 66.2pp.
+5.5pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 41.4pp
to 38.2pp.
-3.2pp ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 37.0pp
to 40.2pp.
+3.2pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.08
to 8.75.
+1.7 ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.42
to -0.19.
-0.6 ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
FG total (model) moved from 40.7
to 44.04.
+3.3 ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -3.78
to 0.9.
+4.7 ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
FG win prob home moved from 61.6pp
to 47.2pp.
-14.4pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.0pp
to 88.9pp.
-2.1pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 64.7pp
to 62.6pp.
-2.1pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 66.2pp
to 60.7pp.
-5.5pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 38.2pp
to 41.4pp.
+3.2pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 40.2pp
to 37.0pp.
-3.2pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.75
to 7.08.
-1.7 ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.19
to 0.42.
+0.6 ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.04
to 40.7.
-3.3 ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
FG spread (model) moved from 0.9
to -3.78.
-4.7 ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
FG win prob home moved from 47.2pp
to 61.6pp.
+14.4pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Tier changed from —
to gold.
noted
Wed 2:13p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 88.9pp
to 91.0pp.
+2.1pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 62.6pp
to 64.7pp.
+2.1pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 60.7pp
to 66.2pp.
+5.5pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 41.4pp
to 38.2pp.
-3.2pp ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 37.0pp
to 40.2pp.
+3.2pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.08
to 8.75.
+1.7 ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.42
to -0.19.
-0.6 ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
FG total (model) moved from 40.7
to 44.04.
+3.3 ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -3.78
to 0.9.
+4.7 ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
FG win prob home moved from 61.6pp
to 47.2pp.
-14.4pp ▼
Wed 11:31a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.97
to -3.78.
-0.8 ▼
Wed 11:31a ET
FG win prob home moved from 59.1pp
to 61.6pp.
+2.5pp ▲
Wed 12:14a ET
First numbers published.
Q1 total projected 7.1.
noted
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Nov 10, 2024
NYG @ CAR
/ 40.5 / +6.5
CAR 20: NYG 17
7
TD, CAR
Oct 9, 2022
SF @ CAR
/ 40 / +6
CAR 15: SF 37
7
TD, SF
Dec 31, 2023
PIT @ SEA
/ 40.5 / -4.5
SEA 23: PIT 30
7
TD, PIT
Nov 17, 2024
GB @ CHI
/ 41 / +6
CHI 19: GB 20
10
TD, GB
Sep 22, 2024
DEN @ TB
/ 40.5 / -6
TB 7: DEN 26
14
TD, DEN
Dec 14, 2025
LAC @ KC
/ 41.5 / -5.5
KC 13: LAC 16
10
TD, KC
Jan 7, 2024
LA @ SF
/ 40 / -5.5
SF 20: LA 21
14
TD, SF
Oct 9, 2025
PHI @ NYG
/ 40.5 / +7
NYG 34: PHI 17
23
FG, PHI
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
100% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 11.5
, opening drive scored 75%