We like Tampa Bay on the full-game moneyline at 45%, +9.6 percentage points against the de-vigged Pinnacle price.
This is the widest gap we will publish between our number and the sharp line, after the bookmaker margin is stripped from both sides — a gap far wider than this one means our model is broken, not that the market is, so we hold the pick rather than headline it. The 1st-quarter model reads the opening quarter from each team’s measured Q1 scoring and allow rates, shrunk toward the league average by how many games stand behind them. It then blends that read with Pinnacle’s own 1st-quarter line, weighted mostly to the book: the price carries injuries, weather and late news our team rates cannot see, so we anchor on it and publish only where we still disagree. The full-game numbers come from a separate model built on the same team data, not from this one carried forward. Every market we price for this game is listed below, with our number next to the book’s.
The numbers we publish for every game
The opening drive
Every market we price
| Market | Our number | Pinnacle | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st quarter | ||||
| Away team leads at the end of the 1st quarter the market the backtest found signal on | 48% | +134 | +6.5 | Wager on away |
| 1st quarter total points we project in the quarter | 9.6 | 10 -121 | +0.5 | no bet |
| Away team scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick | 66% | our number only | ||
| Home team scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick | 68% | our number only | ||
| Opening drive ends in points context only - no edge, no pick | 55% | our number only | ||
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick | 92% | our number only | ||
| Full game | ||||
| Total points in the game we project | 47.0 | 50 -105 | +9.4 | Gold Zone on under |
| Game margin we project | 1.6 | 4 -111 | +6.2 | Wager on away |
| Who wins the game win probability for the side we like | 45% | +174 | +9.6 | Gold Zone on away |
“Our number” is the model’s projection. “Pinnacle” is the posted price. Edge is the gap between the two once the bookmaker margin is removed from both sides.
You just read one snapshot. There are 15 more like it.
Every game on the slate gets the same treatment: which side scores first, opening-drive scoring, the 1st-quarter total and margin, and every full-game line. Re-priced every five minutes against Pinnacle, right up to kickoff. One flat price, no upsells.