Lean
FG ML home
Best number on this game is FG ML home, +3.2 against the sharp line.
The model has Miami Dolphins ahead at the end of the quarter 27% of the time, New England Patriots 51%, and the quarter level 22%, with 7.6 pts projected. Miami Dolphins gets on the board 57% of the time and New England Patriots 68%; the opening drive ends in points 43% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 90% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick. Weather moves the Q1 projection by -0.5 pts.
Q1 total (model)
7.6
Sharp line 7.5
MIA leads after Q1
27%
NE 51%, level 22%
NE scores in Q1
68%
context only, no pick
MIA scores in Q1
57%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
43%
league 42%
Game total (model)
43.9
Sharp line 44.5
Similar games, Q1 scored
75%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
New England Patriots scores in the 1st quarter
68%
Context only: its offence against MIA’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Miami Dolphins scores in the 1st quarter
57%
Context only: its offence against NE’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
43%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
90%
Context only: scoreless the other 10%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
NE
51%
New England Patriots leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 68%, context only
MIA
27%
Miami Dolphins leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 57%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 36%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
MIA
We give them a 29% chance,
+3.2 edge at +270
Game margin
NE
−7.0
The book is at +7, no side
Total points in the game
43.9
The book is at 44.5,
we like the over, +0.8 edge
The model has Miami Dolphins winning 29% of the time, +3.2 better than the sharp line’s +270 implies. We project New England Patriots by 7.0 pts against a posted MIA +7, close enough to the line that we name no side. 43.9 pts projected in total against a posted 44.5: we like the over, +0.8. Weather moves the full-game total by -2 pts.
Model notes: fg_spread home/away retired from ★ picks
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
67%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
7.5
Open, 7.5
unchanged
Now, 7.5
Q1 spread (H)
2.5
Open, 2.5
unchanged
Now, 2.5
Q1 ML home
+160
▼ from
+161
Open, +161
moved -1
Now, +160
Q1 ML away
-187
▲ from
-189
Open, -189
moved +2
Now, -187
FG total
44.5
Open, 44.5
unchanged
Now, 44.5
FG spread (H)
7
▼ from
7.5
Open, 7.5
moved -0.5
Now, 7
FG ML home
+270
▼ from
+273
Open, +273
moved -3
Now, +270
FG ML away
-325
▲ from
-330
Open, -330
moved +5
Now, -325
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Sharp line | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model MIA 27% / tie 22% / NE 51% | (-187) | -190 | NE | +2.6 | Lean |
| 1st quarter total we project 7.6 pts | 7.5 (-114) | +103 | Under 7.5 | -2.1 | — |
| 1st quarter margin we project NE by 2.4 | 2.5 (-114) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets | |||||
| Moneyline model MIA 29% | (+270) | +242 | MIA | +3.2 | Lean |
| Spread model MIA +7.0 | 7 (-111) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Game total model 43.9 pts | 44.5 (+103) | +108 | Over 44.5 | +0.8 | — |
Every change we made, and why
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.0pp
to 89.8pp.
-1.2pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.7pp
to 57.4pp.
-8.3pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.1pp
to 68.3pp.
+3.2pp ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.5pp
to 27.1pp.
-12.4pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 38.9pp
to 51.3pp.
+12.4pp ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.34
to 7.6.
-0.7 ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.07
to -2.41.
-2.5 ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
FG total (model) moved from 42.58
to 43.88.
+1.3 ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
FG spread (model) moved from 2.47
to 7.01.
+4.5 ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
FG win prob home moved from 42.4pp
to 29.3pp.
-13.1pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Wed 2:33p ET
Top market changed from —
to FG ML home.
noted
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.8pp
to 91.0pp.
+1.2pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 57.4pp
to 65.7pp.
+8.3pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 68.3pp
to 65.1pp.
-3.2pp ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 27.1pp
to 39.5pp.
+12.4pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 51.3pp
to 38.9pp.
-12.4pp ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.6
to 8.34.
+0.7 ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -2.41
to 0.07.
+2.5 ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.88
to 42.58.
-1.3 ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
FG spread (model) moved from 7.01
to 2.47.
-4.5 ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
FG win prob home moved from 29.3pp
to 42.4pp.
+13.1pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.0pp
to 89.8pp.
-1.2pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.7pp
to 57.4pp.
-8.3pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.1pp
to 68.3pp.
+3.2pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.5pp
to 27.1pp.
-12.4pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 38.9pp
to 51.3pp.
+12.4pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.34
to 7.6.
-0.7 ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.07
to -2.41.
-2.5 ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
FG total (model) moved from 42.58
to 43.88.
+1.3 ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
FG spread (model) moved from 2.47
to 7.01.
+4.5 ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
FG win prob home moved from 42.4pp
to 29.3pp.
-13.1pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Wed 2:13p ET
Top market changed from —
to FG ML home.
noted
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.8pp
to 91.0pp.
+1.2pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 57.4pp
to 65.7pp.
+8.3pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 68.3pp
to 65.1pp.
-3.2pp ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 27.1pp
to 39.5pp.
+12.4pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 51.3pp
to 38.9pp.
-12.4pp ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.6
to 8.34.
+0.7 ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -2.41
to 0.07.
+2.5 ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.88
to 42.58.
-1.3 ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
FG spread (model) moved from 7.01
to 2.47.
-4.5 ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
FG win prob home moved from 29.3pp
to 42.4pp.
+13.1pp ▲
Wed 10:20a ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.68
to 43.88.
-0.8 ▼
Wed 7:54a ET
FG spread (model) moved from 7.42
to 7.01.
-0.4 ▼
Wed 7:54a ET
Top market changed from FG Total Over
to FG ML home.
noted
Wed 5:17a ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.88
to 44.68.
+0.8 ▲
Wed 5:17a ET
Temperature moved from 75.0°F
to 81.0°F.
+6°F ▲
Wed 5:17a ET
Top market changed from Q1 ML away
to FG Total Over.
noted
Wed 12:14a ET
First numbers published.
Q1 total projected 7.6.
noted
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Sep 11, 2022
PIT @ CIN
/ 44.5 / -7.5
CIN 20: PIT 23
13
TD, PIT
Oct 16, 2022
NYJ @ GB
/ 44.5 / -7.5
GB 10: NYJ 27
0
scoreless
Oct 23, 2022
PIT @ MIA
/ 44.5 / -7.5
MIA 16: PIT 10
13
TD, MIA
Oct 9, 2022
HOU @ JAX
/ 44 / -7
JAX 6: HOU 13
3
FG, JAX
Nov 9, 2025
ARI @ SEA
/ 44.5 / -7
SEA 44: ARI 22
21
TD, SEA
Sep 11, 2022
BAL @ NYJ
/ 44 / +6.5
NYJ 9: BAL 24
3
FG, BAL
Oct 2, 2022
JAX @ PHI
/ 44 / -6.5
PHI 29: JAX 21
14
TD, JAX
Nov 5, 2023
SEA @ BAL
/ 44.5 / -6
BAL 37: SEA 3
0
scoreless
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
75% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 8.4
, opening drive scored 25%