Wager
Q1 ML away
Best number on this game is Q1 ML away, +5.4 against the sharp line.
The model has Pittsburgh Steelers ahead at the end of the quarter 42% of the time, Cleveland Browns 36%, and the quarter level 22%, with 7.1 pts projected. Pittsburgh Steelers gets on the board 63% of the time and Cleveland Browns 60%; the opening drive ends in points 42% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 89% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick.
Q1 total (model)
7.1
Sharp line 7
PIT leads after Q1
42%
CLE 36%, level 22%
CLE scores in Q1
60%
context only, no pick
PIT scores in Q1
63%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
42%
league 42%
Game total (model)
38.4
Sharp line 38.5
Similar games, Q1 scored
88%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
Cleveland Browns scores in the 1st quarter
60%
Context only: its offence against PIT’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Pittsburgh Steelers scores in the 1st quarter
63%
Context only: its offence against CLE’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
42%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
89%
Context only: scoreless the other 11%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
CLE
36%
Cleveland Browns leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 60%, context only
PIT
42%
Pittsburgh Steelers leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 63%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 34%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
CLE
We give them a 37% chance,
+0.7 edge at +166
Game margin
PIT
−4.2
The book is at -3.5, no side
Total points in the game
38.4
The book is at 38.5,
we like the under, +2.4 edge
The model has Cleveland Browns winning 37% of the time, +0.7 better than the sharp line’s +166 implies. We project Pittsburgh Steelers by 4.2 pts against a posted PIT -3.5, close enough to the line that we name no side. 38.4 pts projected in total against a posted 38.5: we like the under, +2.4.
Model notes: fg_spread home/away retired from ★ picks
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
57%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
7
Open, 7
unchanged
Now, 7
Q1 spread (H)
-0.5
Open, -0.5
unchanged
Now, -0.5
Q1 ML home
-156
▲ from
-157
Open, -157
moved +1
Now, -156
Q1 ML away
+135
▼ from
+136
Open, +136
moved -1
Now, +135
FG total
38.5
Open, 38.5
unchanged
Now, 38.5
FG spread (H)
-3.5
Open, -3.5
unchanged
Now, -3.5
FG ML home
-190
Open, -190
unchanged
Now, -190
FG ML away
+166
Open, +166
unchanged
Now, +166
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Sharp line | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model PIT 42% / tie 22% / CLE 36% | (+135) | +115 | CLE | +5.4 | Wager |
| 1st quarter total we project 7.1 pts | 7 (+102) | +102 | Under 7 | +1.9 | Lean |
| 1st quarter margin we project PIT by 0.5 | -0.5 (+116) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets | |||||
| Moneyline model PIT 63% | (+166) | +169 | CLE | +0.7 | — |
| Spread model PIT -4.2 | -3.5 (-101) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Game total model 38.4 pts | 38.5 (+101) | -101 | Under 38.5 | +2.4 | Lean |
Every change we made, and why
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.0pp
to 88.9pp.
-2.1pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.9pp
to 62.8pp.
-3.1pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 64.9pp
to 60.4pp.
-4.5pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.7pp
to 42.0pp.
+2.3pp ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 38.7pp
to 36.4pp.
-2.3pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.7
to 7.06.
-1.6 ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.1
to 0.54.
+0.4 ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.04
to 38.42.
-4.6 ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Wed 2:33p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 88.9pp
to 91.0pp.
+2.1pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 62.8pp
to 65.9pp.
+3.1pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 60.4pp
to 64.9pp.
+4.5pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 42.0pp
to 39.7pp.
-2.3pp ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 36.4pp
to 38.7pp.
+2.3pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.06
to 8.7.
+1.6 ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.54
to 0.1.
-0.4 ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
FG total (model) moved from 38.42
to 43.04.
+4.6 ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.0pp
to 88.9pp.
-2.1pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.9pp
to 62.8pp.
-3.1pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 64.9pp
to 60.4pp.
-4.5pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.7pp
to 42.0pp.
+2.3pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 38.7pp
to 36.4pp.
-2.3pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.7
to 7.06.
-1.6 ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.1
to 0.54.
+0.4 ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.04
to 38.42.
-4.6 ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Wed 2:13p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 88.9pp
to 91.0pp.
+2.1pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 62.8pp
to 65.9pp.
+3.1pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 60.4pp
to 64.9pp.
+4.5pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 42.0pp
to 39.7pp.
-2.3pp ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 36.4pp
to 38.7pp.
+2.3pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.06
to 8.7.
+1.6 ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.54
to 0.1.
-0.4 ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
FG total (model) moved from 38.42
to 43.04.
+4.6 ▲
Wed 5:17a ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Clear.
noted
Wed 12:14a ET
First numbers published.
Q1 total projected 7.1.
noted
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Nov 5, 2023
MIN @ ATL
/ 38.5 / -3.5
ATL 28: MIN 31
6
FG, ATL
Sep 17, 2023
WAS @ DEN
/ 38.5 / -4
DEN 33: WAS 35
17
TD, DEN
Nov 20, 2022
NYJ @ NE
/ 38.5 / -3.5
NE 10: NYJ 3
0
scoreless
Sep 24, 2023
TEN @ CLE
/ 38 / -3.5
CLE 27: TEN 3
3
FG, CLE
Nov 12, 2023
GB @ PIT
/ 38.5 / -3
PIT 23: GB 19
14
TD, PIT
Oct 2, 2022
CHI @ NYG
/ 39 / -3
NYG 20: CHI 12
13
FG, CHI
Sep 15, 2024
SEA @ NE
/ 39 / +3.5
NE 20: SEA 23
14
TD, NE
Nov 3, 2024
NE @ TEN
/ 38.5 / -3
TEN 20: NE 17
7
TD, TEN
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
88% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 9.2
, opening drive scored 38%