Lean
Q1 Total Under
Best number on this game is Q1 Total Under, +3.8 against the sharp line.
The model has Denver Broncos ahead at the end of the quarter 37% of the time, Kansas City Chiefs 42%, and the quarter level 22%, with 7.1 pts projected. Denver Broncos gets on the board 61% of the time and Kansas City Chiefs 63%; the opening drive ends in points 42% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 89% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick.
Q1 total (model)
7.1
Sharp line 7
DEN leads after Q1
37%
KC 42%, level 22%
KC scores in Q1
63%
context only, no pick
DEN scores in Q1
61%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
42%
league 42%
Game total (model)
41.0
Sharp line 40.5
Similar games, Q1 scored
100%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
Kansas City Chiefs scores in the 1st quarter
63%
Context only: its offence against DEN’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Denver Broncos scores in the 1st quarter
61%
Context only: its offence against KC’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
42%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
89%
Context only: scoreless the other 11%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
KC
42%
Kansas City Chiefs leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 63%, context only
DEN
37%
Denver Broncos leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 61%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 34%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
DEN
We give them a 48% chance,
+0.8 edge at +107
Game margin
KC
−0.7
The book is at +1.5, no side
Total points in the game
41.0
The book is at 40.5,
we like the over, +1.5 edge
The model has Denver Broncos winning 48% of the time, +0.8 better than the sharp line’s +107 implies. We project Kansas City Chiefs by 0.7 pts against a posted DEN +1.5, close enough to the line that we name no side. 41.0 pts projected in total against a posted 40.5: we like the over, +1.5.
Model notes: fg_spread home/away retired from ★ picks
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
75%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
7
Open, 7
unchanged
Now, 7
Q1 spread (H)
0.5
Open, 0.5
unchanged
Now, 0.5
Q1 ML home
-103
Open, -103
unchanged
Now, -103
Q1 ML away
-111
Open, -111
unchanged
Now, -111
FG total
40.5
Open, 40.5
unchanged
Now, 40.5
FG spread (H)
1.5
Open, 1.5
unchanged
Now, 1.5
FG ML home
+107
▲ from
+105
Open, +105
moved +2
Now, +107
FG ML away
-120
▼ from
-118
Open, -118
moved -2
Now, -120
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Sharp line | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model DEN 37% / tie 22% / KC 42% | (-111) | -114 | KC | +2.3 | Lean |
| 1st quarter total we project 7.1 pts | 7 (+110) | +102 | Under 7 | +3.8 | Lean |
| 1st quarter margin we project KC by 0.5 | 0.5 (-173) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets | |||||
| Moneyline model DEN 48% | (+107) | +109 | DEN | +0.8 | — |
| Spread model DEN +0.7 | 1.5 (-109) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Game total model 41.0 pts | 40.5 (-108) | -106 | Over 40.5 | +1.5 | Lean |
Every change we made, and why
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.0pp
to 88.9pp.
-2.1pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.4pp
to 60.5pp.
-4.9pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.5pp
to 62.7pp.
-2.8pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.1pp
to 36.7pp.
-2.4pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.3pp
to 41.7pp.
+2.4pp ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.7
to 7.06.
-1.6 ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.02
to -0.49.
-0.5 ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.84
to 41.02.
-3.8 ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.07
to 0.72.
+2.8 ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
FG win prob home moved from 56.4pp
to 47.8pp.
-8.6pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Wed 2:33p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 Total Under.
noted
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 88.9pp
to 91.0pp.
+2.1pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 60.5pp
to 65.4pp.
+4.9pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 62.7pp
to 65.5pp.
+2.8pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 36.7pp
to 39.1pp.
+2.4pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 41.7pp
to 39.3pp.
-2.4pp ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.06
to 8.7.
+1.6 ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.49
to -0.02.
+0.5 ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
FG total (model) moved from 41.02
to 44.84.
+3.8 ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
FG spread (model) moved from 0.72
to -2.07.
-2.8 ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
FG win prob home moved from 47.8pp
to 56.4pp.
+8.6pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.0pp
to 88.9pp.
-2.1pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.4pp
to 60.5pp.
-4.9pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.5pp
to 62.7pp.
-2.8pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.1pp
to 36.7pp.
-2.4pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.3pp
to 41.7pp.
+2.4pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.7
to 7.06.
-1.6 ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.02
to -0.49.
-0.5 ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.84
to 41.02.
-3.8 ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.07
to 0.72.
+2.8 ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
FG win prob home moved from 56.4pp
to 47.8pp.
-8.6pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Wed 2:13p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 Total Under.
noted
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 88.9pp
to 91.0pp.
+2.1pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 60.5pp
to 65.4pp.
+4.9pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 62.7pp
to 65.5pp.
+2.8pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 36.7pp
to 39.1pp.
+2.4pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 41.7pp
to 39.3pp.
-2.4pp ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.06
to 8.7.
+1.6 ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.49
to -0.02.
+0.5 ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
FG total (model) moved from 41.02
to 44.84.
+3.8 ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
FG spread (model) moved from 0.72
to -2.07.
-2.8 ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
FG win prob home moved from 47.8pp
to 56.4pp.
+8.6pp ▲
Wed 5:17a ET
Temperature moved from 51.0°F
to 57.0°F.
+6°F ▲
Wed 1:14a ET
Conditions changed from Clear
to Clouds.
noted
Wed 12:14a ET
First numbers published.
Q1 total projected 7.1.
noted
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Sep 25, 2022
NO @ CAR
/ 41 / +2
CAR 22: NO 14
7
TD, CAR
Oct 16, 2022
JAX @ IND
/ 41 / -1
IND 34: JAX 27
7
TD, JAX
Oct 30, 2022
DEN @ JAX
/ 41 / -1
JAX 17: DEN 21
7
TD, JAX
Sep 10, 2023
GB @ CHI
/ 41 / -1
CHI 20: GB 38
10
TD, GB
Sep 17, 2023
IND @ HOU
/ 40 / +1
HOU 20: IND 31
21
TD, IND
Nov 5, 2023
WAS @ NE
/ 40.5 / -2.5
NE 17: WAS 20
3
FG, WAS
Sep 17, 2023
GB @ ATL
/ 40.5 / -3
ATL 25: GB 24
3
FG, ATL
Sep 10, 2023
SF @ PIT
/ 41.5 / +1.5
PIT 7: SF 30
10
TD, SF
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
100% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 8.5
, opening drive scored 12%