Lean
FG Total Under
Best number on this game is FG Total Under, +3.3 against the sharp line.
The model has New York Jets ahead at the end of the quarter 42% of the time, Las Vegas Raiders 37%, and the quarter level 22%, with 7.5 pts projected. New York Jets gets on the board 64% of the time and Las Vegas Raiders 61%; the opening drive ends in points 42% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 89% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick.
Q1 total (model)
7.5
Sharp line 7.5
NYJ leads after Q1
42%
LV 37%, level 22%
LV scores in Q1
61%
context only, no pick
NYJ scores in Q1
64%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
42%
league 42%
Game total (model)
44.3
Sharp line 45.5
Similar games, Q1 scored
75%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
Las Vegas Raiders scores in the 1st quarter
61%
Context only: its offence against NYJ’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
New York Jets scores in the 1st quarter
64%
Context only: its offence against LV’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
42%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
89%
Context only: scoreless the other 11%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
LV
37%
Las Vegas Raiders leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 61%, context only
NYJ
42%
New York Jets leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 64%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 36%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
NYJ
We give them a 54% chance,
+1.4 edge at -119
Game margin
NYJ
−1.3
The book is at -1, no side
Total points in the game
44.3
The book is at 45.5,
we like the under, +3.3 edge
The model has New York Jets winning 54% of the time, +1.4 better than the sharp line’s -119 implies. We project New York Jets by 1.3 pts against a posted NYJ -1, close enough to the line that we name no side. 44.3 pts projected in total against a posted 45.5: we like the under, +3.3.
Model notes: fg_spread home/away retired from ★ picks
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
50%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
7.5
Open, 7.5
unchanged
Now, 7.5
Q1 spread (H)
-0.5
Open, -0.5
unchanged
Now, -0.5
Q1 ML home
-114
▼ from
-113
Open, -113
moved -1
Now, -114
Q1 ML away
-101
Open, -101
unchanged
Now, -101
FG total
45.5
Open, 45.5
unchanged
Now, 45.5
FG spread (H)
-1
Open, -1
unchanged
Now, -1
FG ML home
-119
Open, -119
unchanged
Now, -119
FG ML away
+106
Open, +106
unchanged
Now, +106
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Sharp line | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model NYJ 42% / tie 22% / LV 37% | (-114) | -114 | NYJ | +1.8 | Lean |
| 1st quarter total we project 7.5 pts | 7.5 (-107) | -101 | Under 7.5 | +0.5 | — |
| 1st quarter margin we project NYJ by 0.5 | -0.5 (+137) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets | |||||
| Moneyline model NYJ 54% | (-119) | -118 | NYJ | +1.4 | — |
| Spread model NYJ -1.3 | -1 (-110) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Game total model 44.3 pts | 45.5 (-109) | -115 | Under 45.5 | +3.3 | Lean |
Every change we made, and why
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 90.9pp
to 89.4pp.
-1.5pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.6pp
to 61.4pp.
-4.2pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.1pp
to 41.7pp.
+2.6pp ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.3pp
to 36.7pp.
-2.6pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.49
to 7.46.
-1.0 ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.02
to 0.49.
+0.5 ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
FG total (model) moved from 41.28
to 44.3.
+3.0 ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.15
to -1.34.
+0.8 ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
FG win prob home moved from 56.6pp
to 54.2pp.
-2.4pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Wed 2:33p ET
Top market changed from —
to FG Total Under.
noted
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.4pp
to 90.9pp.
+1.5pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 61.4pp
to 65.6pp.
+4.2pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 41.7pp
to 39.1pp.
-2.6pp ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 36.7pp
to 39.3pp.
+2.6pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.46
to 8.49.
+1.0 ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.49
to -0.02.
-0.5 ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.3
to 41.28.
-3.0 ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.34
to -2.15.
-0.8 ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
FG win prob home moved from 54.2pp
to 56.6pp.
+2.4pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 90.9pp
to 89.4pp.
-1.5pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.6pp
to 61.4pp.
-4.2pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.1pp
to 41.7pp.
+2.6pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.3pp
to 36.7pp.
-2.6pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.49
to 7.46.
-1.0 ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.02
to 0.49.
+0.5 ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
FG total (model) moved from 41.28
to 44.3.
+3.0 ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.15
to -1.34.
+0.8 ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
FG win prob home moved from 56.6pp
to 54.2pp.
-2.4pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Wed 2:13p ET
Top market changed from —
to FG Total Under.
noted
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.4pp
to 90.9pp.
+1.5pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 61.4pp
to 65.6pp.
+4.2pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 41.7pp
to 39.1pp.
-2.6pp ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 36.7pp
to 39.3pp.
+2.6pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.46
to 8.49.
+1.0 ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.49
to -0.02.
-0.5 ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.3
to 41.28.
-3.0 ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.34
to -2.15.
-0.8 ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
FG win prob home moved from 54.2pp
to 56.6pp.
+2.4pp ▲
Wed 12:14a ET
First numbers published.
Q1 total projected 7.5.
noted
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Sep 25, 2022
LV @ TEN
/ 45.5 / +1.5
TEN 24: LV 22
10
TD, TEN
Sep 25, 2022
BAL @ NE
/ 45.5 / +2.5
NE 26: BAL 37
7
TD, BAL
Sep 17, 2023
LAC @ TEN
/ 45.5 / +2.5
TEN 27: LAC 24
3
FG, LAC
Jan 17, 2026
BUF @ DEN
/ 45.5 / -1.5
DEN 33: BUF 30
10
FG, DEN
Dec 20, 2025
GB @ CHI
/ 45.5 / -1.5
CHI 22: GB 16
0
scoreless
Oct 26, 2025
CHI @ BAL
/ 45.5 / -2.5
BAL 30: CHI 16
6
FG, CHI
Oct 2, 2022
KC @ TB
/ 46.5 / -1
TB 31: KC 41
17
TD, KC
Sep 10, 2023
CIN @ CLE
/ 46.5 / +1
CLE 24: CIN 3
0
scoreless
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
75% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 6.6
, opening drive scored 50%