No Tier
No priced edge
No market on this game beats the sharp line right now.
The model has New York Jets ahead at the end of the quarter 38% of the time, Miami Dolphins 41%, and the quarter level 22%, with 8.7 pts projected. New York Jets gets on the board 65% of the time and Miami Dolphins 66%; the opening drive ends in points 43% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 91% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick. The sharp line has not posted this game, so no market here carries an edge yet.
Q1 total (model)
8.7
not quoted
NYJ leads after Q1
38%
MIA 41%, level 22%
MIA scores in Q1
66%
context only, no pick
NYJ scores in Q1
65%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
43%
league 42%
Game total (model)
42.4
not quoted
Similar games, Q1 scored
88%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
The sharp line has not posted a 1st-quarter line on this game yet. It opens the quarter about a week out, so for now there is no line to blend these toward and nothing to check them against. They are the model's own output, unvalidated, read them as a view, not as a price.
Miami Dolphins scores in the 1st quarter
66%
Context only: its offence against NYJ’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
New York Jets scores in the 1st quarter
65%
Context only: its offence against MIA’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
43%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
91%
Context only: scoreless the other 9%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
MIA
41%
Miami Dolphins leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 66%, context only
NYJ
38%
New York Jets leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 65%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 40%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
—
No sharp-line moneyline on this game, so our win probability stays back. With no line to blend toward it runs to extremes we will not publish unchecked.
Game margin
—
No sharp-line spread on this game. Same rule as the moneyline: the projected margin stays back until there is a line to check it against.
Total points in the game
42.4
Unpriced, our projection only. The sharp line posts no total on this game.
We project Miami Dolphins by 1.3 pts. The sharp line has not posted a spread, so that margin is unvalidated and stays off the card above. 42.4 pts projected in total, unpriced: the sharp line has not posted a total. The sharp line opens the full game first, usually well before the quarter, so this is the half of the page that prices first.
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
29%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
7
Open, 7
unchanged
Now, 7
Q1 spread (H)
-0.5
Open, -0.5
unchanged
Now, -0.5
Q1 ML home
-154
▲ from
-172
Open, -172
moved +18
Now, -154
Q1 ML away
+133
▼ from
+148
Open, +148
moved -15
Now, +133
FG total
39.5
Open, 39.5
unchanged
Now, 39.5
FG spread (H)
-3.5
▲ from
-4.5
Open, -4.5
moved +1
Now, -3.5
FG ML home
-195
▲ from
-218
Open, -218
moved +23
Now, -195
FG ML away
+173
▼ from
+188
Open, +188
moved -15
Now, +173
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Sharp line | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets unpriced, model only, not validated | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model NYJ 38% / tie 22% / MIA 41% | — | +107 | no bet | — | unpriced |
| 1st quarter total we project 8.7 pts | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| 1st quarter margin we project MIA by 0.3 | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets unpriced, model only, not validated | |||||
| Moneyline no sharp-line market - model number withheld | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Spread no sharp-line market - model number withheld | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Game total model 42.4 pts | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
Every change we made, and why
Sun 12:20p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.39
to -1.99.
+0.4 ▲
Sun 8:34a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.8
to -2.39.
+0.4 ▲
Sun 8:34a ET
Tier changed from gold
to wager.
noted
Sun 7:08a ET
Temperature moved from 68.0°F
to 60.0°F.
-8°F ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 90.9pp
to 88.9pp.
-2pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 64.7pp
to 62.5pp.
-2.2pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 66.0pp
to 60.7pp.
-5.3pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 37.9pp
to 41.2pp.
+3.3pp ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 40.5pp
to 37.2pp.
-3.3pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.69
to 7.05.
-1.6 ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.26
to 0.39.
+0.7 ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
FG total (model) moved from 42.39
to 39.1.
-3.3 ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
FG spread (model) moved from 1.32
to -2.8.
-4.1 ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
FG win prob home moved from 45.9pp
to 58.6pp.
+12.7pp ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
Tier changed from —
to gold.
noted
Fri 9:02p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 88.9pp
to 90.9pp.
+2pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 62.5pp
to 64.7pp.
+2.2pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 60.7pp
to 66.0pp.
+5.3pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 41.2pp
to 37.9pp.
-3.3pp ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 37.2pp
to 40.5pp.
+3.3pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.05
to 8.69.
+1.6 ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.39
to -0.26.
-0.7 ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
FG total (model) moved from 39.1
to 42.39.
+3.3 ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.8
to 1.32.
+4.1 ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
FG win prob home moved from 58.6pp
to 45.9pp.
-12.7pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 90.9pp
to 88.9pp.
-2pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 64.7pp
to 62.5pp.
-2.2pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 66.0pp
to 60.7pp.
-5.3pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 37.9pp
to 41.2pp.
+3.3pp ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 40.5pp
to 37.2pp.
-3.3pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.69
to 7.05.
-1.6 ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.26
to 0.39.
+0.7 ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
FG total (model) moved from 42.39
to 39.1.
-3.3 ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
FG spread (model) moved from 1.32
to -2.8.
-4.1 ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
FG win prob home moved from 45.9pp
to 58.6pp.
+12.7pp ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
Tier changed from —
to gold.
noted
Thu 9:44p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 88.9pp
to 90.9pp.
+2pp ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 62.5pp
to 64.7pp.
+2.2pp ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 60.7pp
to 66.0pp.
+5.3pp ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 41.2pp
to 37.9pp.
-3.3pp ▼
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 37.2pp
to 40.5pp.
+3.3pp ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.05
to 8.69.
+1.6 ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.39
to -0.26.
-0.7 ▼
Thu 9:39p ET
FG total (model) moved from 39.1
to 42.39.
+3.3 ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.8
to 1.32.
+4.1 ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
FG win prob home moved from 58.6pp
to 45.9pp.
-12.7pp ▼
Thu 10:10a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 90.9pp
to 88.9pp.
-2pp ▼
Thu 10:10a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 64.7pp
to 62.5pp.
-2.2pp ▼
Thu 10:10a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 66.0pp
to 60.7pp.
-5.3pp ▼
Thu 10:10a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 37.9pp
to 41.2pp.
+3.3pp ▲
Thu 10:10a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 40.5pp
to 37.2pp.
-3.3pp ▼
Thu 10:10a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.69
to 7.05.
-1.6 ▼
Thu 10:10a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.26
to 0.39.
+0.7 ▲
Thu 10:10a ET
FG total (model) moved from 42.39
to 39.1.
-3.3 ▼
Thu 10:10a ET
FG spread (model) moved from 1.32
to -2.8.
-4.1 ▼
Thu 10:10a ET
FG win prob home moved from 45.9pp
to 58.6pp.
+12.7pp ▲
Thu 10:10a ET
Tier changed from —
to gold.
noted
Thu 10:10a ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML away.
noted
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Sep 8, 2024
MIN @ NYG
/ 42.5 / +1
NYG 6: MIN 28
10
FG, NYG
Oct 3, 2022
LA @ SF
/ 42 / -1
SF 24: LA 9
10
FG, LA
Nov 12, 2023
IND @ NE
/ 42 / +1
NE 6: IND 10
10
FG, NE
Dec 14, 2025
GB @ DEN
/ 42.5 / +1.5
DEN 34: GB 26
3
FG, GB
Nov 3, 2024
LAC @ CLE
/ 42.5 / +2
CLE 10: LAC 27
7
TD, LAC
Sep 11, 2022
CLE @ CAR
/ 42.5 / -2.5
CAR 24: CLE 26
0
scoreless
Sep 25, 2022
ATL @ SEA
/ 43 / -1
SEA 23: ATL 27
20
FG, SEA
Oct 9, 2022
TEN @ WAS
/ 43 / +1
WAS 17: TEN 21
10
TD, TEN
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
88% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 8.8
, opening drive scored 38%