No Tier
No priced edge
No market on this game beats the sharp line right now.
The model has Carolina Panthers ahead at the end of the quarter 39% of the time, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 40%, and the quarter level 22%, with 8.7 pts projected. Carolina Panthers gets on the board 65% of the time and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 66%; the opening drive ends in points 42% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 91% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick. The sharp line has not posted this game, so no market here carries an edge yet.
Q1 total (model)
8.7
not quoted
CAR leads after Q1
39%
TB 40%, level 22%
TB scores in Q1
66%
context only, no pick
CAR scores in Q1
65%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
42%
league 42%
Game total (model)
43.5
not quoted
Similar games, Q1 scored
88%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
The sharp line has not posted a 1st-quarter line on this game yet. It opens the quarter about a week out, so for now there is no line to blend these toward and nothing to check them against. They are the model's own output, unvalidated, read them as a view, not as a price.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers scores in the 1st quarter
66%
Context only: its offence against CAR’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Carolina Panthers scores in the 1st quarter
65%
Context only: its offence against TB’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
42%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
91%
Context only: scoreless the other 9%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
TB
40%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 66%, context only
CAR
39%
Carolina Panthers leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 65%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 40%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
—
No sharp-line moneyline on this game, so our win probability stays back. With no line to blend toward it runs to extremes we will not publish unchecked.
Game margin
—
No sharp-line spread on this game. Same rule as the moneyline: the projected margin stays back until there is a line to check it against.
Total points in the game
43.5
Unpriced, our projection only. The sharp line posts no total on this game.
We project Carolina Panthers by 0.3 pts. The sharp line has not posted a spread, so that margin is unvalidated and stays off the card above. 43.5 pts projected in total, unpriced: the sharp line has not posted a total. The sharp line opens the full game first, usually well before the quarter, so this is the half of the page that prices first.
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
57%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
7.5
Open, 7.5
unchanged
Now, 7.5
Q1 spread (H)
-0.5
Open, -0.5
unchanged
Now, -0.5
Q1 ML home
-128
▲ from
-150
Open, -150
moved +22
Now, -128
Q1 ML away
+112
▼ from
+130
Open, +130
moved -18
Now, +112
FG total
45
Open, 45
unchanged
Now, 45
FG spread (H)
-3
Open, -3
unchanged
Now, -3
FG ML home
-158
▲ from
-170
Open, -170
moved +12
Now, -158
FG ML away
+142
▼ from
+149
Open, +149
moved -7
Now, +142
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Sharp line | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets unpriced, model only, not validated | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model CAR 39% / tie 22% / TB 40% | — | +102 | no bet | — | unpriced |
| 1st quarter total we project 8.7 pts | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| 1st quarter margin we project TB by 0.1 | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets unpriced, model only, not validated | |||||
| Moneyline no sharp-line market - model number withheld | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Spread no sharp-line market - model number withheld | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Game total model 43.5 pts | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
Every change we made, and why
Sun 10:09a ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Clear.
noted
Sun 9:14a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.82
to -2.23.
-0.4 ▼
Sun 9:14a ET
Top market changed from FG ML away
to Q1 Total Over.
noted
Sun 7:08a ET
Temperature moved from 68.0°F
to 61.0°F.
-7°F ▼
Sun 5:07a ET
Conditions changed from Clear
to Clouds.
noted
Sat 8:58p ET
Top market changed from Q1 Total Over
to FG ML away.
noted
Sat 8:37a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.23
to -1.82.
+0.4 ▲
Sat 4:56a ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Clear.
noted
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.1pp
to 89.5pp.
-1.6pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.4pp
to 63.7pp.
-1.7pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.9pp
to 61.7pp.
-4.2pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 38.8pp
to 41.6pp.
+2.8pp ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.6pp
to 36.8pp.
-2.8pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.7
to 7.54.
-1.2 ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.09
to 0.46.
+0.6 ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.49
to 44.71.
+1.2 ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -0.3
to -2.23.
-1.9 ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
FG win prob home moved from 50.9pp
to 56.9pp.
+6pp ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Fri 9:02p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 Total Over.
noted
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.5pp
to 91.1pp.
+1.6pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 63.7pp
to 65.4pp.
+1.7pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 61.7pp
to 65.9pp.
+4.2pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 41.6pp
to 38.8pp.
-2.8pp ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 36.8pp
to 39.6pp.
+2.8pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.54
to 8.7.
+1.2 ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.46
to -0.09.
-0.6 ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.71
to 43.49.
-1.2 ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.23
to -0.3.
+1.9 ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
FG win prob home moved from 56.9pp
to 50.9pp.
-6pp ▼
Fri 4:50p ET
Conditions changed from Clear
to Clouds.
noted
Fri 9:46a ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Clear.
noted
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.1pp
to 89.5pp.
-1.6pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.4pp
to 63.7pp.
-1.7pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.9pp
to 61.7pp.
-4.2pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 38.8pp
to 41.6pp.
+2.8pp ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.6pp
to 36.8pp.
-2.8pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.7
to 7.54.
-1.2 ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.09
to 0.46.
+0.6 ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.49
to 44.71.
+1.2 ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -0.3
to -2.23.
-1.9 ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
FG win prob home moved from 50.9pp
to 56.9pp.
+6pp ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Thu 9:44p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 Total Over.
noted
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.5pp
to 91.1pp.
+1.6pp ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 63.7pp
to 65.4pp.
+1.7pp ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 61.7pp
to 65.9pp.
+4.2pp ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 41.6pp
to 38.8pp.
-2.8pp ▼
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 36.8pp
to 39.6pp.
+2.8pp ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.54
to 8.7.
+1.2 ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.46
to -0.09.
-0.6 ▼
Thu 9:39p ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.71
to 43.49.
-1.2 ▼
Thu 9:39p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.23
to -0.3.
+1.9 ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
FG win prob home moved from 56.9pp
to 50.9pp.
-6pp ▼
Thu 4:34p ET
Conditions changed from Clear
to Clouds.
noted
Thu 3:03p ET
Tier changed from wager
to lean.
noted
Thu 3:03p ET
Top market changed from FG ML away
to Q1 Total Over.
noted
Thu 1:17p ET
Tier changed from lean
to wager.
noted
Thu 1:17p ET
Top market changed from Q1 Total Over
to FG ML away.
noted
Thu 10:10a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.1pp
to 89.5pp.
-1.6pp ▼
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Sep 8, 2025
MIN @ CHI
/ 43.5 / +1.5
CHI 24: MIN 27
7
TD, CHI
Sep 25, 2022
ATL @ SEA
/ 43 / -1
SEA 23: ATL 27
20
FG, SEA
Oct 9, 2022
TEN @ WAS
/ 43 / +1
WAS 17: TEN 21
10
TD, TEN
Sep 18, 2022
CAR @ NYG
/ 44 / +1
NYG 19: CAR 16
6
FG, NYG
Sep 25, 2022
SF @ DEN
/ 44 / +1
DEN 11: SF 10
7
TD, SF
Oct 2, 2022
ARI @ CAR
/ 44 / -1
CAR 16: ARI 26
0
scoreless
Oct 8, 2023
TEN @ IND
/ 43.5 / +2.5
IND 23: TEN 16
10
FG, TEN
Sep 21, 2025
HOU @ JAX
/ 43.5 / -1.5
JAX 17: HOU 10
7
TD, JAX
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
88% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 8.4
, opening drive scored 25%