No Tier
No priced edge
No market on this game beats the sharp line right now.
The model has Minnesota Vikings ahead at the end of the quarter 38% of the time, Indianapolis Colts 40%, and the quarter level 22%, with 8.8 pts projected. Minnesota Vikings gets on the board 66% of the time and Indianapolis Colts 66%; the opening drive ends in points 42% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 91% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick. The sharp line has not posted this game, so no market here carries an edge yet.
Q1 total (model)
8.8
not quoted
MIN leads after Q1
38%
IND 40%, level 22%
IND scores in Q1
66%
context only, no pick
MIN scores in Q1
66%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
42%
league 42%
Game total (model)
44.1
not quoted
Similar games, Q1 scored
75%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
The sharp line has not posted a 1st-quarter line on this game yet. It opens the quarter about a week out, so for now there is no line to blend these toward and nothing to check them against. They are the model's own output, unvalidated, read them as a view, not as a price.
Indianapolis Colts scores in the 1st quarter
66%
Context only: its offence against MIN’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Minnesota Vikings scores in the 1st quarter
66%
Context only: its offence against IND’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
42%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
91%
Context only: scoreless the other 9%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
IND
40%
Indianapolis Colts leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 66%, context only
MIN
38%
Minnesota Vikings leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 66%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 41%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
—
No sharp-line moneyline on this game, so our win probability stays back. With no line to blend toward it runs to extremes we will not publish unchecked.
Game margin
—
No sharp-line spread on this game. Same rule as the moneyline: the projected margin stays back until there is a line to check it against.
Total points in the game
44.1
Unpriced, our projection only. The sharp line posts no total on this game.
We project Indianapolis Colts by 1.3 pts. The sharp line has not posted a spread, so that margin is unvalidated and stays off the card above. 44.1 pts projected in total, unpriced: the sharp line has not posted a total. The sharp line opens the full game first, usually well before the quarter, so this is the half of the page that prices first.
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
67%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
7.5
Open, 7.5
unchanged
Now, 7.5
Q1 spread (H)
-0.5
Open, -0.5
unchanged
Now, -0.5
Q1 ML home
-222
▼ from
-205
Open, -205
moved -17
Now, -222
Q1 ML away
+187
▲ from
+174
Open, +174
moved +13
Now, +187
FG total
42.5
▲ from
41.5
Open, 41.5
moved +1
Now, 42.5
FG spread (H)
-7.5
▼ from
-6.5
Open, -6.5
moved -1
Now, -7.5
FG ML home
-324
▼ from
-285
Open, -285
moved -39
Now, -324
FG ML away
+276
▲ from
+240
Open, +240
moved +36
Now, +276
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Sharp line | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets unpriced, model only, not validated | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model MIN 38% / tie 22% / IND 40% | — | +104 | no bet | — | unpriced |
| 1st quarter total we project 8.8 pts | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| 1st quarter margin we project IND by 0.1 | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets unpriced, model only, not validated | |||||
| Moneyline no sharp-line market - model number withheld | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Spread no sharp-line market - model number withheld | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Game total model 44.1 pts | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
Every change we made, and why
Sun 12:20p ET
FG total (model) moved from 41.67
to 42.61.
+0.9 ▲
Sun 8:34a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -4.43
to -5.25.
-0.8 ▼
Sun 8:34a ET
FG win prob home moved from 63.5pp
to 65.8pp.
+2.3pp ▲
Sat 2:55p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.2pp
to 89.6pp.
-1.6pp ▼
Sat 2:55p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.8pp
to 63.8pp.
-2pp ▼
Sat 2:55p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 66.0pp
to 61.9pp.
-4.1pp ▼
Sat 2:55p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 38.5pp
to 41.5pp.
+3pp ▲
Sat 2:55p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.9pp
to 36.9pp.
-3pp ▼
Sat 2:55p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.85
to 7.6.
-1.2 ▼
Sat 2:55p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.14
to 0.44.
+0.6 ▲
Sat 2:55p ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.11
to 41.67.
-2.4 ▼
Sat 2:55p ET
FG spread (model) moved from 1.31
to -4.43.
-5.7 ▼
Sat 2:55p ET
FG win prob home moved from 46.0pp
to 63.5pp.
+17.5pp ▲
Sat 2:55p ET
Tier changed from —
to gold.
noted
Sat 2:55p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Sat 12:09p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.6pp
to 91.2pp.
+1.6pp ▲
Sat 12:09p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 63.8pp
to 65.8pp.
+2pp ▲
Sat 12:09p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 61.9pp
to 66.0pp.
+4.1pp ▲
Sat 12:09p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 41.5pp
to 38.5pp.
-3pp ▼
Sat 12:09p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 36.9pp
to 39.9pp.
+3pp ▲
Sat 12:09p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.6
to 8.85.
+1.2 ▲
Sat 12:09p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.44
to -0.14.
-0.6 ▼
Sat 12:09p ET
FG total (model) moved from 41.67
to 44.11.
+2.4 ▲
Sat 12:09p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -4.43
to 1.31.
+5.7 ▲
Sat 12:09p ET
FG win prob home moved from 63.5pp
to 46.0pp.
-17.5pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.2pp
to 89.6pp.
-1.6pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.8pp
to 63.8pp.
-2pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 66.0pp
to 61.9pp.
-4.1pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 38.5pp
to 41.5pp.
+3pp ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.9pp
to 36.9pp.
-3pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.85
to 7.6.
-1.2 ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.14
to 0.44.
+0.6 ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.11
to 41.67.
-2.4 ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
FG spread (model) moved from 1.31
to -4.43.
-5.7 ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
FG win prob home moved from 46.0pp
to 63.5pp.
+17.5pp ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
Tier changed from —
to gold.
noted
Fri 9:02p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.6pp
to 91.2pp.
+1.6pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 63.8pp
to 65.8pp.
+2pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 61.9pp
to 66.0pp.
+4.1pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 41.5pp
to 38.5pp.
-3pp ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 36.9pp
to 39.9pp.
+3pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.6
to 8.85.
+1.2 ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.44
to -0.14.
-0.6 ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
FG total (model) moved from 41.67
to 44.11.
+2.4 ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -4.43
to 1.31.
+5.7 ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
FG win prob home moved from 63.5pp
to 46.0pp.
-17.5pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.2pp
to 89.6pp.
-1.6pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.8pp
to 63.8pp.
-2pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 66.0pp
to 61.9pp.
-4.1pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 38.5pp
to 41.5pp.
+3pp ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.9pp
to 36.9pp.
-3pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.85
to 7.6.
-1.2 ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.14
to 0.44.
+0.6 ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.11
to 41.67.
-2.4 ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
FG spread (model) moved from 1.31
to -4.43.
-5.7 ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
FG win prob home moved from 46.0pp
to 63.5pp.
+17.5pp ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
Tier changed from —
to gold.
noted
Thu 9:44p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.6pp
to 91.2pp.
+1.6pp ▲
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Oct 21, 2024
LAC @ ARI
/ 44 / +1
ARI 17: LAC 15
0
scoreless
Nov 17, 2024
CLE @ NO
/ 44 / +1
NO 35: CLE 14
13
TD, NO
Dec 12, 2022
NE @ ARI
/ 44 / +2
ARI 13: NE 27
0
scoreless
Nov 3, 2024
CHI @ ARI
/ 44.5 / -1.5
ARI 29: CHI 9
7
TD, ARI
Sep 25, 2025
SEA @ ARI
/ 43.5 / +1.5
ARI 20: SEA 23
10
FG, ARI
Dec 7, 2025
WAS @ MIN
/ 43.5 / +1.5
MIN 31: WAS 0
7
TD, MIN
Sep 18, 2022
TB @ NO
/ 44 / +2.5
NO 10: TB 20
3
FG, NO
Oct 3, 2024
TB @ ATL
/ 44 / -2.5
ATL 36: TB 30
17
TD, ATL
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
75% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 7.1
, opening drive scored 38%