No Tier
No priced edge
No market on this game beats the sharp line right now.
The model has Houston Texans ahead at the end of the quarter 39% of the time, New York Giants 39%, and the quarter level 22%, with 8.7 pts projected. Houston Texans gets on the board 65% of the time and New York Giants 65%; the opening drive ends in points 42% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 91% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick. The sharp line has not posted this game, so no market here carries an edge yet.
Q1 total (model)
8.7
not quoted
HOU leads after Q1
39%
NYG 39%, level 22%
NYG scores in Q1
65%
context only, no pick
HOU scores in Q1
65%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
42%
league 42%
Game total (model)
44.2
not quoted
Similar games, Q1 scored
75%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
The sharp line has not posted a 1st-quarter line on this game yet. It opens the quarter about a week out, so for now there is no line to blend these toward and nothing to check them against. They are the model's own output, unvalidated, read them as a view, not as a price.
New York Giants scores in the 1st quarter
65%
Context only: its offence against HOU’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Houston Texans scores in the 1st quarter
65%
Context only: its offence against NYG’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
42%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
91%
Context only: scoreless the other 9%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
NYG
39%
New York Giants leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 65%, context only
HOU
39%
Houston Texans leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 65%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 40%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
—
No sharp-line moneyline on this game, so our win probability stays back. With no line to blend toward it runs to extremes we will not publish unchecked.
Game margin
—
No sharp-line spread on this game. Same rule as the moneyline: the projected margin stays back until there is a line to check it against.
Total points in the game
44.2
Unpriced, our projection only. The sharp line posts no total on this game.
We project Houston Texans by 3.1 pts. The sharp line has not posted a spread, so that margin is unvalidated and stays off the card above. 44.2 pts projected in total, unpriced: the sharp line has not posted a total. The sharp line opens the full game first, usually well before the quarter, so this is the half of the page that prices first.
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
33%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
7.5
Open, 7.5
unchanged
Now, 7.5
Q1 spread (H)
-3
Open, -3
unchanged
Now, -3
Q1 ML home
-266
▲ from
-269
Open, -269
moved +3
Now, -266
Q1 ML away
+220
▼ from
+222
Open, +222
moved -2
Now, +220
FG total
43.5
Open, 43.5
unchanged
Now, 43.5
FG spread (H)
-10.5
Open, -10.5
unchanged
Now, -10.5
FG ML home
-426
▲ from
-469
Open, -469
moved +43
Now, -426
FG ML away
+352
▼ from
+369
Open, +369
moved -17
Now, +352
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Sharp line | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets unpriced, model only, not validated | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model HOU 39% / tie 22% / NYG 39% | — | +100 | no bet | — | unpriced |
| 1st quarter total we project 8.7 pts | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| 1st quarter margin we project NYG by 0.0 | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets unpriced, model only, not validated | |||||
| Moneyline no sharp-line market - model number withheld | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Spread no sharp-line market - model number withheld | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Game total model 44.2 pts | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
Every change we made, and why
Sun 12:30p ET
Top market changed from FG ML away
to FG Total Over.
noted
Sun 11:45a ET
Best edge moved from 3.1
to 1.6.
-1.5 ▼
Sun 11:45a ET
Top market changed from FG Total Over
to FG ML away.
noted
Sun 11:30a ET
Top market changed from FG Spread away
to FG Total Over.
noted
Sun 11:15a ET
Top market changed from FG Total Over
to FG Spread away.
noted
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.0pp
to 89.9pp.
-1.1pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.4pp
to 69.3pp.
+3.9pp ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.3pp
to 56.2pp.
-9.1pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.1pp
to 53.8pp.
+14.7pp ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.3pp
to 24.6pp.
-14.7pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.74
to 7.56.
-1.2 ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.02
to 2.93.
+3.0 ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.2
to 43.59.
-0.6 ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -3.13
to -9.46.
-6.3 ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
FG win prob home moved from 59.6pp
to 76.9pp.
+17.3pp ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Fri 9:02p ET
Top market changed from —
to FG Total Over.
noted
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.9pp
to 91.0pp.
+1.1pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 69.3pp
to 65.4pp.
-3.9pp ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 56.2pp
to 65.3pp.
+9.1pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 53.8pp
to 39.1pp.
-14.7pp ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 24.6pp
to 39.3pp.
+14.7pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.56
to 8.74.
+1.2 ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 2.93
to -0.02.
-3.0 ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.59
to 44.2.
+0.6 ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -9.46
to -3.13.
+6.3 ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
FG win prob home moved from 76.9pp
to 59.6pp.
-17.3pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.0pp
to 89.9pp.
-1.1pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.4pp
to 69.3pp.
+3.9pp ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.3pp
to 56.2pp.
-9.1pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.1pp
to 53.8pp.
+14.7pp ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.3pp
to 24.6pp.
-14.7pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.74
to 7.56.
-1.2 ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.02
to 2.93.
+3.0 ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.2
to 43.59.
-0.6 ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -3.13
to -9.46.
-6.3 ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
FG win prob home moved from 59.6pp
to 76.9pp.
+17.3pp ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Thu 9:44p ET
Top market changed from —
to FG Total Over.
noted
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.9pp
to 91.0pp.
+1.1pp ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 69.3pp
to 65.4pp.
-3.9pp ▼
Thu 9:39p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 56.2pp
to 65.3pp.
+9.1pp ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 53.8pp
to 39.1pp.
-14.7pp ▼
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 24.6pp
to 39.3pp.
+14.7pp ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.56
to 8.74.
+1.2 ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 2.93
to -0.02.
-3.0 ▼
Thu 9:39p ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.59
to 44.2.
+0.6 ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -9.46
to -3.13.
+6.3 ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
FG win prob home moved from 76.9pp
to 59.6pp.
-17.3pp ▼
Thu 10:46a ET
Top market changed from FG Spread away
to FG Total Over.
noted
Thu 10:10a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.0pp
to 89.9pp.
-1.1pp ▼
Thu 10:10a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.4pp
to 69.3pp.
+3.9pp ▲
Thu 10:10a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.3pp
to 56.2pp.
-9.1pp ▼
Thu 10:10a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.1pp
to 53.8pp.
+14.7pp ▲
Thu 10:10a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.3pp
to 24.6pp.
-14.7pp ▼
Thu 10:10a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.74
to 7.56.
-1.2 ▼
Thu 10:10a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.02
to 2.93.
+3.0 ▲
Thu 10:10a ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.2
to 43.59.
-0.6 ▼
Thu 10:10a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -3.13
to -9.46.
-6.3 ▼
Thu 10:10a ET
FG win prob home moved from 59.6pp
to 76.9pp.
+17.3pp ▲
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Dec 4, 2022
NYJ @ MIN
/ 44 / -3
MIN 27: NYJ 22
6
FG, MIN
Dec 24, 2023
IND @ ATL
/ 44 / -3
ATL 29: IND 10
14
TD, IND
Oct 20, 2024
MIA @ IND
/ 44 / -3
IND 16: MIA 10
7
TD, MIA
Nov 30, 2025
HOU @ IND
/ 44.5 / -3
IND 16: HOU 20
3
FG, HOU
Oct 22, 2023
PIT @ LA
/ 44 / -3.5
LA 17: PIT 24
0
scoreless
Dec 26, 2022
LAC @ IND
/ 44.5 / +3.5
IND 3: LAC 20
0
scoreless
Sep 14, 2025
ATL @ MIN
/ 44.5 / -3.5
MIN 6: ATL 22
6
FG, ATL
Sep 18, 2022
TB @ NO
/ 44 / +2.5
NO 10: TB 20
3
FG, NO
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
75% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 4.9
, opening drive scored 38%