No Tier
No priced edge
No market on this game beats the sharp line right now.
The model has Las Vegas Raiders ahead at the end of the quarter 38% of the time, Los Angeles Rams 40%, and the quarter level 22%, with 8.7 pts projected. Las Vegas Raiders gets on the board 65% of the time and Los Angeles Rams 66%; the opening drive ends in points 41% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 91% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick. The sharp line has not posted this game, so no market here carries an edge yet.
Q1 total (model)
8.7
not quoted
LV leads after Q1
38%
LAR 40%, level 22%
LAR scores in Q1
66%
context only, no pick
LV scores in Q1
65%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
41%
league 42%
Game total (model)
43.7
not quoted
Similar games, Q1 scored
88%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
The sharp line has not posted a 1st-quarter line on this game yet. It opens the quarter about a week out, so for now there is no line to blend these toward and nothing to check them against. They are the model's own output, unvalidated, read them as a view, not as a price.
Los Angeles Rams scores in the 1st quarter
66%
Context only: its offence against LV’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Las Vegas Raiders scores in the 1st quarter
65%
Context only: its offence against LAR’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
41%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
91%
Context only: scoreless the other 9%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
LAR
40%
Los Angeles Rams leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 66%, context only
LV
38%
Las Vegas Raiders leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 65%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 40%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
—
No sharp-line moneyline on this game, so our win probability stays back. With no line to blend toward it runs to extremes we will not publish unchecked.
Game margin
—
No sharp-line spread on this game. Same rule as the moneyline: the projected margin stays back until there is a line to check it against.
Total points in the game
43.7
Unpriced, our projection only. The sharp line posts no total on this game.
We project Los Angeles Rams by 6.6 pts. The sharp line has not posted a spread, so that margin is unvalidated and stays off the card above. 43.7 pts projected in total, unpriced: the sharp line has not posted a total. The sharp line opens the full game first, usually well before the quarter, so this is the half of the page that prices first.
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
43%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
9.5
Open, 9.5
unchanged
Now, 9.5
Q1 spread (H)
0.5
Open, 0.5
unchanged
Now, 0.5
Q1 ML home
+117
▼ from
+128
Open, +128
moved -11
Now, +117
Q1 ML away
-134
▲ from
-148
Open, -148
moved +14
Now, -134
FG total
49.5
▲ from
47.5
Open, 47.5
moved +2
Now, 49.5
FG spread (H)
3.5
▼ from
4
Open, 4
moved -0.5
Now, 3.5
FG ML home
+150
▼ from
+180
Open, +180
moved -30
Now, +150
FG ML away
-167
▲ from
-208
Open, -208
moved +41
Now, -167
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Sharp line | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets unpriced, model only, not validated | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model LV 38% / tie 22% / LAR 40% | — | +106 | no bet | — | unpriced |
| 1st quarter total we project 8.7 pts | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| 1st quarter margin we project LAR by 0.2 | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets unpriced, model only, not validated | |||||
| Moneyline no sharp-line market - model number withheld | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Spread no sharp-line market - model number withheld | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Game total model 43.7 pts | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
Every change we made, and why
Sun 4:22p ET
FG total (model) moved from 48.09
to 49.03.
+0.9 ▲
Sun 4:22p ET
Top market changed from FG Total Under
to Q1 Total Under.
noted
Sun 3:21p ET
Best edge moved from 2.1
to 3.6.
+1.5 ▲
Sun 12:05p ET
Top market changed from Q1 ML home
to FG Total Under.
noted
Sun 8:18a ET
Top market changed from Q1 Total Under
to Q1 ML home.
noted
Sun 8:03a ET
Top market changed from Q1 ML home
to Q1 Total Under.
noted
Sun 2:16a ET
Top market changed from Q1 Total Under
to Q1 ML home.
noted
Sat 9:59p ET
Top market changed from Q1 ML home
to Q1 Total Under.
noted
Sat 10:38a ET
Tier changed from neutral
to lean.
noted
Sat 10:38a ET
Top market changed from Q1 Total Under
to Q1 ML home.
noted
Fri 10:18p ET
Tier changed from lean
to neutral.
noted
Fri 10:18p ET
Top market changed from Q1 ML home
to Q1 Total Under.
noted
Fri 9:02p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.9pp
to 68.3pp.
+2.4pp ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 38.0pp
to 36.2pp.
-1.8pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 40.4pp
to 42.2pp.
+1.8pp ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.69
to 9.48.
+0.8 ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.23
to -0.57.
-0.3 ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.69
to 48.09.
+4.4 ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
FG spread (model) moved from 6.63
to 5.83.
-0.8 ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
FG win prob home moved from 30.3pp
to 32.5pp.
+2.2pp ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Fri 9:02p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML home.
noted
Fri 8:57p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 68.3pp
to 65.9pp.
-2.4pp ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 36.2pp
to 38.0pp.
+1.8pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 42.2pp
to 40.4pp.
-1.8pp ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.48
to 8.69.
-0.8 ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.57
to -0.23.
+0.3 ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
FG total (model) moved from 48.09
to 43.69.
-4.4 ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
FG spread (model) moved from 5.83
to 6.63.
+0.8 ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
FG win prob home moved from 32.5pp
to 30.3pp.
-2.2pp ▼
Fri 4:45p ET
Best edge moved from 5.8
to 1.6.
-4.2 ▼
Fri 4:45p ET
Tier changed from wager
to lean.
noted
Fri 4:45p ET
Top market changed from FG ML away
to Q1 ML home.
noted
Thu 9:44p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.9pp
to 68.3pp.
+2.4pp ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 38.0pp
to 36.2pp.
-1.8pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 40.4pp
to 42.2pp.
+1.8pp ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.69
to 9.48.
+0.8 ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.23
to -0.57.
-0.3 ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.69
to 48.09.
+4.4 ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
FG spread (model) moved from 6.63
to 5.83.
-0.8 ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
FG win prob home moved from 30.3pp
to 32.5pp.
+2.2pp ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Thu 9:44p ET
Top market changed from —
to FG ML away.
noted
Thu 9:39p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 68.3pp
to 65.9pp.
-2.4pp ▼
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 36.2pp
to 38.0pp.
+1.8pp ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 42.2pp
to 40.4pp.
-1.8pp ▼
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.48
to 8.69.
-0.8 ▼
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.57
to -0.23.
+0.3 ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
FG total (model) moved from 48.09
to 43.69.
-4.4 ▼
Thu 9:39p ET
FG spread (model) moved from 5.83
to 6.63.
+0.8 ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
FG win prob home moved from 32.5pp
to 30.3pp.
-2.2pp ▼
Thu 6:40p ET
FG spread (model) moved from 6.23
to 5.83.
-0.4 ▼
Thu 6:25p ET
Tier changed from lean
to wager.
noted
Thu 6:25p ET
Top market changed from Q1 ML home
to FG ML away.
noted
Thu 2:53p ET
FG total (model) moved from 47.15
to 48.09.
+0.9 ▲
Thu 10:10a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.9pp
to 68.3pp.
+2.4pp ▲
Thu 10:10a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 38.0pp
to 36.2pp.
-1.8pp ▼
Thu 10:10a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 40.4pp
to 42.2pp.
+1.8pp ▲
Thu 10:10a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.69
to 9.48.
+0.8 ▲
Thu 10:10a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.23
to -0.57.
-0.3 ▼
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Dec 16, 2024
CHI @ MIN
/ 43.5 / -7
MIN 30: CHI 12
10
FG, MIN
Jan 5, 2025
WAS @ DAL
/ 43.5 / +7
DAL 19: WAS 23
3
FG, DAL
Sep 11, 2022
NO @ ATL
/ 43.5 / +6
ATL 26: NO 27
10
FG, ATL
Oct 1, 2023
NE @ DAL
/ 43 / -6.5
DAL 38: NE 3
13
FG, DAL
Nov 20, 2025
BUF @ HOU
/ 43.5 / +5.5
HOU 23: BUF 19
9
TD, BUF
Oct 29, 2023
LA @ DAL
/ 44.5 / -6.5
DAL 43: LA 20
20
TD, DAL
Dec 16, 2024
ATL @ LV
/ 44.5 / +6.5
LV 9: ATL 15
7
TD, ATL
Oct 20, 2024
LV @ LA
/ 43 / -7
LA 20: LV 15
0
scoreless
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
88% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 9.0
, opening drive scored 38%