Wager
Q1 Total Over
Best number on this game is Q1 Total Over, +6.4 against Pinnacle.
The model has Kansas City Chiefs ahead at the end of the quarter 41% of the time, Denver Broncos 38%, and the quarter level 22%, with 8.1 pts projected. Kansas City Chiefs gets on the board 65% of the time and Denver Broncos 63%; the opening drive ends in points 39% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 90% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick. Weather moves the Q1 projection by -0.1 pts.
Q1 total (model)
8.1
Pinnacle 7.5
KC leads after Q1
41%
DEN 38%, level 22%
DEN scores in Q1
63%
context only, no pick
KC scores in Q1
65%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
39%
league 42%
Game total (model)
44.4
Pinnacle 44
Similar games, Q1 scored
100%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
Denver Broncos scores in the 1st quarter
63%
Context only: its offence against KC’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Kansas City Chiefs scores in the 1st quarter
65%
Context only: its offence against DEN’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
39%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
90%
Context only: scoreless the other 10%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
DEN
38%
Denver Broncos leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 63%, context only
KC
41%
Kansas City Chiefs leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 65%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 38%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
DEN
We give them a 46% chance,
+1.8 edge at +122
Game margin
KC
−1.4
The book is at -2.5,
+3.3 edge on
DEN
Total points in the game
44.4
The book is at 44,
we like the over, +3.4 edge
The model has Denver Broncos winning 46% of the time, +1.8 better than Pinnacle’s +122 implies. We project Kansas City Chiefs by 1.4 pts against a posted KC -2.5, which puts the value on DEN at +3.3. 44.4 pts projected in total against a posted 44: we like the over, +3.4. Weather moves the full-game total by -0.4 pts.
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
50%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
7.5
Open, 7.5
unchanged
Now, 7.5
Q1 spread (H)
-0.5
Open, -0.5
unchanged
Now, -0.5
Q1 ML home
-125
▲ from
-133
Open, -133
moved +8
Now, -125
Q1 ML away
+109
▼ from
+116
Open, +116
moved -7
Now, +109
FG total
44
▲ from
43
Open, 43
moved +1
Now, 44
FG spread (H)
-2.5
▲ from
-3
Open, -3
moved +0.5
Now, -2.5
FG ML home
-137
▲ from
-146
Open, -146
moved +9
Now, -137
FG ML away
+122
▼ from
+129
Open, +129
moved -7
Now, +122
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Pinnacle | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model KC 41% / tie 22% / DEN 38% | (+109) | +109 | DEN | +1.6 | Lean |
| 1st quarter total we project 8.1 pts | 7.5 (+101) | -119 | Over 7.5 | +6.4 | Wager |
| 1st quarter margin we project KC by 0.3 | -0.5 (+129) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets | |||||
| Moneyline model KC 54% | (+122) | +119 | DEN | +1.8 | Lean |
| Spread model KC -1.4 | -2.5 (-106) | -114 | DEN +2.5 | +3.3 | Lean |
| Game total model 44.4 pts | 44 (+101) | -105 | Over 44 | +3.4 | Lean |
Every change we made, and why
Fri 3:44p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.73
to -1.43.
+0.3 ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.6pp
to 90.2pp.
-1.4pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 66.9pp
to 64.7pp.
-2.2pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 66.2pp
to 63.2pp.
-3pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.91
to 8.1.
-0.8 ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.18
to 44.47.
-0.7 ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
FG spread (model) moved from 0.18
to -1.73.
-1.9 ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
FG win prob home moved from 49.5pp
to 55.3pp.
+5.8pp ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Fri 10:41a ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 Total Over.
noted
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 90.2pp
to 91.6pp.
+1.4pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 64.7pp
to 66.9pp.
+2.2pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 63.2pp
to 66.2pp.
+3pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.1
to 8.91.
+0.8 ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.47
to 45.18.
+0.7 ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.73
to 0.18.
+1.9 ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
FG win prob home moved from 55.3pp
to 49.5pp.
-5.8pp ▼
Fri 9:10a ET
Temperature moved from 91.0°F
to 85.0°F.
-6°F ▼
Thu 2:58p ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Clear.
noted
Thu 9:12a ET
Conditions changed from Clear
to Clouds.
noted
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.6pp
to 90.2pp.
-1.4pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 66.9pp
to 64.7pp.
-2.2pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 66.2pp
to 63.2pp.
-3pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.92
to 8.1.
-0.8 ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.23
to 44.49.
-0.7 ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
FG spread (model) moved from 0.18
to -1.73.
-1.9 ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
FG win prob home moved from 49.5pp
to 55.3pp.
+5.8pp ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Thu 8:22a ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 Total Over.
noted
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 90.2pp
to 91.6pp.
+1.4pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 64.7pp
to 66.9pp.
+2.2pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 63.2pp
to 66.2pp.
+3pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.1
to 8.92.
+0.8 ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.49
to 45.23.
+0.7 ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.73
to 0.18.
+1.9 ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
FG win prob home moved from 55.3pp
to 49.5pp.
-5.8pp ▼
Wed 9:04p ET
Temperature moved from 75.0°F
to 92.0°F.
+17°F ▲
Wed 9:04p ET
Wind moved from 3.0mph
to 16.0mph.
+13mph ▲
Wed 9:04p ET
Conditions changed from Rain
to Clear.
noted
Wed 6:01p ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Rain.
noted
Wed 5:01p ET
Temperature moved from 88.0°F
to 77.0°F.
-11°F ▼
Wed 5:01p ET
Wind moved from 15.0mph
to 10.0mph.
-5mph ▼
Wed 5:01p ET
Conditions changed from Rain
to Clouds.
noted
Wed 4:00p ET
Temperature moved from 78.0°F
to 88.0°F.
+10°F ▲
Wed 4:00p ET
Wind moved from 10.0mph
to 15.0mph.
+5mph ▲
Wed 4:00p ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Rain.
noted
Wed 2:59p ET
Conditions changed from Clear
to Clouds.
noted
Wed 11:57a ET
Wind moved from 8.0mph
to 13.0mph.
+5mph ▲
Wed 10:56a ET
Wind moved from 1.0mph
to 8.0mph.
+7mph ▲
Wed 9:55a ET
Wind moved from 6.0mph
to 1.0mph.
-5mph ▼
Wed 8:54a ET
Conditions changed from Rain
to Clear.
noted
Wed 8:35a ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Rain.
noted
Wed 7:34a ET
Wind moved from 12.0mph
to 7.0mph.
-5mph ▼
Wed 7:34a ET
Conditions changed from Clear
to Clouds.
noted
Tue 10:16p ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.01
to 44.61.
+0.6 ▲
Tue 8:45p ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Clear.
noted
Tue 5:40p ET
Temperature moved from 58.0°F
to 100.0°F.
+42°F ▲
Tue 5:40p ET
Wind moved from 6.0mph
to 16.0mph.
+10mph ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.6pp
to 90.2pp.
-1.4pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 66.9pp
to 64.7pp.
-2.2pp ▼
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Oct 20, 2022
NO @ ARI
/ 44 / -2.5
ARI 42: NO 34
10
TD, NO
Sep 18, 2022
MIA @ BAL
/ 44 / -3
BAL 38: MIA 42
7
TD, BAL
Oct 23, 2022
NYG @ JAX
/ 44 / -3
JAX 17: NYG 23
15
TD, NYG
Sep 29, 2024
MIN @ GB
/ 44 / -2.5
GB 29: MIN 31
14
TD, MIN
Sep 11, 2023
BUF @ NYJ
/ 44.5 / +2.5
NYJ 22: BUF 16
3
FG, BUF
Oct 8, 2023
TEN @ IND
/ 43.5 / +2.5
IND 23: TEN 16
10
FG, TEN
Sep 29, 2025
NYJ @ MIA
/ 44.5 / -2.5
MIA 27: NYJ 21
3
FG, MIA
Dec 22, 2024
SF @ MIA
/ 44 / +2
MIA 29: SF 17
3
FG, MIA
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
100% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 8.1
, opening drive scored 62%