No Tier
No priced edge
No market on this game beats Pinnacle right now.
The model has Los Angeles Rams ahead at the end of the quarter 38% of the time, San Francisco 49ers 41%, and the quarter level 22%, with 9.5 pts projected. Los Angeles Rams gets on the board 68% of the time and San Francisco 49ers 68%; the opening drive ends in points 40% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 92% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick. Pinnacle has not posted this game, so no market here carries an edge yet.
Q1 total (model)
9.5
not quoted
LAR leads after Q1
38%
SF 41%, level 22%
SF scores in Q1
68%
context only, no pick
LAR scores in Q1
68%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
40%
league 42%
Game total (model)
45.7
not quoted
Similar games, Q1 scored
88%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
Pinnacle has not posted a 1st-quarter line on this game yet. It opens the quarter about a week out, so for now there is no line to blend these toward and nothing to check them against. They are the model's own output, unvalidated, read them as a view, not as a price.
San Francisco 49ers scores in the 1st quarter
68%
Context only: its offence against LAR’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Los Angeles Rams scores in the 1st quarter
68%
Context only: its offence against SF’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
40%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
92%
Context only: scoreless the other 8%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
SF
41%
San Francisco 49ers leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 68%, context only
LAR
38%
Los Angeles Rams leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 68%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 43%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
—
No Pinnacle moneyline on this game, so our win probability stays back. With no line to blend toward it runs to extremes we will not publish unchecked.
Game margin
—
No Pinnacle spread on this game. Same rule as the moneyline: the projected margin stays back until there is a line to check it against.
Total points in the game
45.7
Unpriced, our projection only. Pinnacle posts no total on this game.
We project Los Angeles Rams by 7.7 pts. Pinnacle has not posted a spread, so that margin is unvalidated and stays off the card above. 45.7 pts projected in total, unpriced: Pinnacle has not posted a total. Pinnacle opens the full game first, usually well before the quarter, so this is the half of the page that prices first.
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
57%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
9.5
Open, 9.5
unchanged
Now, 9.5
Q1 spread (H)
-0.5
Open, -0.5
unchanged
Now, -0.5
Q1 ML home
-138
▲ from
-154
Open, -154
moved +16
Now, -138
Q1 ML away
+120
▼ from
+133
Open, +133
moved -13
Now, +120
FG total
48
▼ from
48.5
Open, 48.5
moved -0.5
Now, 48
FG spread (H)
-3.5
▼ from
-3
Open, -3
moved -0.5
Now, -3.5
FG ML home
-192
▼ from
-187
Open, -187
moved -5
Now, -192
FG ML away
+171
▲ from
+163
Open, +163
moved +8
Now, +171
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Pinnacle | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets unpriced, model only, not validated | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model LAR 38% / tie 22% / SF 41% | — | +108 | no bet | — | unpriced |
| 1st quarter total we project 9.5 pts | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| 1st quarter margin we project SF by 0.3 | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets unpriced, model only, not validated | |||||
| Moneyline no Pinnacle market - model number withheld | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Spread no Pinnacle market - model number withheld | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Game total model 45.7 pts | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
Every change we made, and why
Thu 8:11p ET
Top market changed from FG Spread home
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Thu 7:56p ET
Best edge moved from 6.04
to 4.65.
-1.4 ▼
Thu 7:56p ET
Top market changed from Q1 ML away
to FG Spread home.
noted
Thu 11:25a ET
Top market changed from FG Spread home
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Thu 10:09a ET
Top market changed from Q1 ML away
to FG Spread home.
noted
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 37.8pp
to 40.2pp.
+2.4pp ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 40.6pp
to 38.2pp.
-2.4pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.28
to 0.19.
+0.5 ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.7
to 47.08.
+1.4 ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -7.68
to -5.17.
+2.5 ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
FG win prob home moved from 72.3pp
to 65.5pp.
-6.8pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Thu 8:22a ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 40.2pp
to 37.8pp.
-2.4pp ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 38.2pp
to 40.6pp.
+2.4pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.19
to -0.28.
-0.5 ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
FG total (model) moved from 47.08
to 45.7.
-1.4 ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -5.17
to -7.68.
-2.5 ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
FG win prob home moved from 65.5pp
to 72.3pp.
+6.8pp ▲
Wed 10:05p ET
Tier changed from gold
to wager.
noted
Wed 9:49p ET
Tier changed from wager
to gold.
noted
Tue 4:18p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 37.8pp
to 40.2pp.
+2.4pp ▲
Tue 4:18p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 40.6pp
to 38.2pp.
-2.4pp ▼
Tue 4:18p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.28
to 0.19.
+0.5 ▲
Tue 4:18p ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.7
to 47.08.
+1.4 ▲
Tue 4:18p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -7.68
to -5.17.
+2.5 ▲
Tue 4:18p ET
FG win prob home moved from 72.3pp
to 65.5pp.
-6.8pp ▼
Tue 4:18p ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Tue 4:18p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Tue 4:06p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 40.2pp
to 37.8pp.
-2.4pp ▼
Tue 4:06p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 38.2pp
to 40.6pp.
+2.4pp ▲
Tue 4:06p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.19
to -0.28.
-0.5 ▼
Tue 4:06p ET
FG total (model) moved from 47.08
to 45.7.
-1.4 ▼
Tue 4:06p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -5.17
to -7.68.
-2.5 ▼
Tue 4:06p ET
FG win prob home moved from 65.5pp
to 72.3pp.
+6.8pp ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 37.8pp
to 40.2pp.
+2.4pp ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 40.6pp
to 38.2pp.
-2.4pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.28
to 0.19.
+0.5 ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.7
to 47.08.
+1.4 ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -7.68
to -5.17.
+2.5 ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
FG win prob home moved from 72.3pp
to 65.5pp.
-6.8pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Mon 8:16a ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Mon 8:11a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 40.2pp
to 37.8pp.
-2.4pp ▼
Mon 8:11a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 38.2pp
to 40.6pp.
+2.4pp ▲
Mon 8:11a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.19
to -0.28.
-0.5 ▼
Mon 8:11a ET
FG total (model) moved from 47.08
to 45.7.
-1.4 ▼
Mon 8:11a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -5.17
to -7.68.
-2.5 ▼
Mon 8:11a ET
FG win prob home moved from 65.5pp
to 72.3pp.
+6.8pp ▲
Sun 9:39p ET
Best edge moved from 8.12
to 5.61.
-2.5 ▼
Sun 9:39p ET
Tier changed from gold
to wager.
noted
Sun 10:37a ET
Tier changed from wager
to gold.
noted
Sun 10:37a ET
Top market changed from FG Spread home
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Sun 8:50a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 68.1pp
to 66.1pp.
-2pp ▼
Sun 8:50a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 37.8pp
to 41.5pp.
+3.7pp ▲
Sun 8:50a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 40.6pp
to 37.0pp.
-3.6pp ▼
Sun 8:50a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.28
to 0.44.
+0.7 ▲
Sun 8:50a ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.7
to 47.08.
+1.4 ▲
Sun 8:50a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -7.68
to -5.17.
+2.5 ▲
Sun 8:50a ET
FG win prob home moved from 72.3pp
to 65.5pp.
-6.8pp ▼
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Sep 14, 2025
CAR @ ARI
/ 45.5 / -7
ARI 27: CAR 22
13
TD, ARI
Dec 25, 2025
DET @ MIN
/ 45.5 / +7
MIN 23: DET 10
7
TD, MIN
Sep 11, 2022
IND @ HOU
/ 46 / +7
HOU 20: IND 20
3
FG, IND
Oct 23, 2022
HOU @ LV
/ 46 / -7
LV 38: HOU 20
3
FG, LV
Oct 30, 2023
LV @ DET
/ 46 / -7
DET 26: LV 14
3
FG, DET
Sep 17, 2023
SF @ LA
/ 45 / +7.5
LA 23: SF 30
10
TD, SF
Nov 20, 2022
PHI @ IND
/ 45.5 / +6.5
IND 16: PHI 17
7
TD, IND
Sep 25, 2022
JAX @ LAC
/ 46 / -6.5
LAC 10: JAX 38
0
scoreless
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
88% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 5.8
, opening drive scored 50%