Gold
FG ML home
Best number on this game is FG ML home, +9.0 against Pinnacle.
The model has Indianapolis Colts ahead at the end of the quarter 38% of the time, Baltimore Ravens 40%, and the quarter level 22%, with 9.9 pts projected. Indianapolis Colts gets on the board 67% of the time and Baltimore Ravens 69%; the opening drive ends in points 49% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 92% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick.
Q1 total (model)
9.9
Pinnacle 9.5
IND leads after Q1
38%
BAL 40%, level 22%
BAL scores in Q1
69%
context only, no pick
IND scores in Q1
67%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
49%
league 42%
Game total (model)
46.4
Pinnacle 47.5
Similar games, Q1 scored
100%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
Baltimore Ravens scores in the 1st quarter
69%
Context only: its offence against IND’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Indianapolis Colts scores in the 1st quarter
67%
Context only: its offence against BAL’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
49%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
92%
Context only: scoreless the other 8%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
BAL
40%
Baltimore Ravens leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 69%, context only
IND
38%
Indianapolis Colts leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 67%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 44%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
IND
We give them a 48% chance,
+9.0 edge at +151
Game margin
BAL
−0.8
The book is at +3.5,
+5.5 edge on
IND
Total points in the game
46.4
The book is at 47.5,
we like the under, +5.2 edge
The model has Indianapolis Colts winning 48% of the time, +9.0 better than Pinnacle’s +151 implies. We project Baltimore Ravens by 0.8 pts against a posted IND +3.5, which puts the value on IND at +5.5. 46.4 pts projected in total against a posted 47.5: we like the under, +5.2.
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
62%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
9.5
Open, 9.5
unchanged
Now, 9.5
Q1 spread (H)
0.5
Open, 0.5
unchanged
Now, 0.5
Q1 ML home
+107
▼ from
+119
Open, +119
moved -12
Now, +107
Q1 ML away
-122
▲ from
-137
Open, -137
moved +15
Now, -122
FG total
47.5
Open, 47.5
unchanged
Now, 47.5
FG spread (H)
3.5
Open, 3.5
unchanged
Now, 3.5
FG ML home
+151
▼ from
+154
Open, +154
moved -3
Now, +151
FG ML away
-172
▲ from
-176
Open, -176
moved +4
Now, -172
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Pinnacle | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model IND 38% / tie 22% / BAL 40% | (+107) | +106 | IND | +1.6 | Lean |
| 1st quarter total we project 9.9 pts | 9.5 (-111) | -112 | Over 9.5 | +2.2 | Lean |
| 1st quarter margin we project BAL by 0.2 | 0.5 (-147) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets | |||||
| Moneyline model IND 48% | (+151) | +110 | IND | +9.0 ★ | Gold |
| Spread model IND +0.8 | 3.5 (-119) | -140 | IND +3.5 | +5.5 | Wager |
| Game total model 46.4 pts | 47.5 (-100) | -114 | Under 47.5 | +5.2 | Wager |
Every change we made, and why
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 94.4pp
to 92.3pp.
-2.1pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 72.5pp
to 67.5pp.
-5pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 72.8pp
to 68.5pp.
-4.3pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 40.0pp
to 38.0pp.
-2pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 38.4pp
to 40.4pp.
+2pp ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 10.48
to 9.89.
-0.6 ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.16
to -0.24.
-0.4 ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.69
to 46.38.
+1.7 ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -3.33
to 0.77.
+4.1 ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
FG win prob home moved from 60.1pp
to 47.6pp.
-12.5pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Tier changed from —
to gold.
noted
Fri 10:41a ET
Top market changed from —
to FG ML home.
noted
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 92.3pp
to 94.4pp.
+2.1pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 67.5pp
to 72.5pp.
+5pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 68.5pp
to 72.8pp.
+4.3pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 38.0pp
to 40.0pp.
+2pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 40.4pp
to 38.4pp.
-2pp ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.89
to 10.48.
+0.6 ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.24
to 0.16.
+0.4 ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
FG total (model) moved from 46.38
to 44.69.
-1.7 ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
FG spread (model) moved from 0.77
to -3.33.
-4.1 ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
FG win prob home moved from 47.6pp
to 60.1pp.
+12.5pp ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 94.4pp
to 92.3pp.
-2.1pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 72.5pp
to 67.5pp.
-5pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 72.8pp
to 68.5pp.
-4.3pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 40.0pp
to 38.0pp.
-2pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 38.4pp
to 40.4pp.
+2pp ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 10.48
to 9.89.
-0.6 ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.16
to -0.24.
-0.4 ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.69
to 46.38.
+1.7 ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -3.33
to 0.77.
+4.1 ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
FG win prob home moved from 60.1pp
to 47.6pp.
-12.5pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Tier changed from —
to gold.
noted
Thu 8:22a ET
Top market changed from —
to FG ML home.
noted
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 92.3pp
to 94.4pp.
+2.1pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 67.5pp
to 72.5pp.
+5pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 68.5pp
to 72.8pp.
+4.3pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 38.0pp
to 40.0pp.
+2pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 40.4pp
to 38.4pp.
-2pp ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.89
to 10.48.
+0.6 ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.24
to 0.16.
+0.4 ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
FG total (model) moved from 46.38
to 44.69.
-1.7 ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
FG spread (model) moved from 0.77
to -3.33.
-4.1 ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
FG win prob home moved from 47.6pp
to 60.1pp.
+12.5pp ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 94.4pp
to 92.3pp.
-2.1pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 72.5pp
to 67.5pp.
-5pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 72.8pp
to 68.5pp.
-4.3pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 40.0pp
to 38.0pp.
-2pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 38.4pp
to 40.4pp.
+2pp ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 10.48
to 9.89.
-0.6 ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.16
to -0.24.
-0.4 ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.69
to 46.38.
+1.7 ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -3.33
to 0.77.
+4.1 ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
FG win prob home moved from 60.1pp
to 47.6pp.
-12.5pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Tier changed from —
to gold.
noted
Mon 8:16a ET
Top market changed from —
to FG ML home.
noted
Mon 8:11a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 92.3pp
to 94.4pp.
+2.1pp ▲
Mon 8:11a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 67.5pp
to 72.5pp.
+5pp ▲
Mon 8:11a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 68.5pp
to 72.8pp.
+4.3pp ▲
Mon 8:11a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 38.0pp
to 40.0pp.
+2pp ▲
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Dec 3, 2023
DEN @ HOU
/ 47.5 / -3.5
HOU 22: DEN 17
10
FG, HOU
Jan 7, 2024
MIN @ DET
/ 47.5 / -3.5
DET 30: MIN 20
13
TD, DET
Sep 24, 2023
ATL @ DET
/ 47.5 / -3
DET 20: ATL 6
3
FG, DET
Dec 3, 2023
DET @ NO
/ 47.5 / +4
NO 28: DET 33
21
TD, DET
Oct 24, 2024
MIN @ LA
/ 47.5 / +3
LA 30: MIN 20
21
TD, MIN
Sep 5, 2025
KC @ LAC
/ 47.5 / +3
LAC 27: KC 21
7
TD, LAC
Nov 16, 2025
CHI @ MIN
/ 47.5 / -3
MIN 17: CHI 19
3
FG, MIN
Nov 23, 2025
PHI @ DAL
/ 47.5 / +3
DAL 24: PHI 21
14
TD, PHI
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
100% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 11.5
, opening drive scored 25%