Gold
FG Total Under
Best number on this game is FG Total Under, +7.6 against Pinnacle.
The model has Detroit Lions ahead at the end of the quarter 51% of the time, New Orleans Saints 28%, and the quarter level 22%, with 9.4 pts projected. Detroit Lions gets on the board 72% of the time and New Orleans Saints 62%; the opening drive ends in points 43% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 92% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick.
Q1 total (model)
9.4
Pinnacle 10
DET leads after Q1
51%
NO 28%, level 22%
NO scores in Q1
62%
context only, no pick
DET scores in Q1
72%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
43%
league 42%
Game total (model)
47.5
Pinnacle 49.5
Similar games, Q1 scored
100%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
New Orleans Saints scores in the 1st quarter
62%
Context only: its offence against DET’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Detroit Lions scores in the 1st quarter
72%
Context only: its offence against NO’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
43%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
92%
Context only: scoreless the other 8%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
NO
28%
New Orleans Saints leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 62%, context only
DET
51%
Detroit Lions leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 72%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 42%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
NO
We give them a 31% chance,
+5.1 edge at +266
Game margin
DET
−6.3
The book is at -7,
+1.8 edge on
NO
Total points in the game
47.5
The book is at 49.5,
we like the under, +7.6 edge
The model has New Orleans Saints winning 31% of the time, +5.1 better than Pinnacle’s +266 implies. We project Detroit Lions by 6.3 pts against a posted DET -7, which puts the value on NO at +1.8. 47.5 pts projected in total against a posted 49.5: we like the under, +7.6.
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
50%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
10
Open, 10
unchanged
Now, 10
Q1 spread (H)
-3
Open, -3
unchanged
Now, -3
Q1 ML home
-209
▲ from
-216
Open, -216
moved +7
Now, -209
Q1 ML away
+177
▼ from
+182
Open, +182
moved -5
Now, +177
FG total
49.5
Open, 49.5
unchanged
Now, 49.5
FG spread (H)
-7
Open, -7
unchanged
Now, -7
FG ML home
-321
▼ from
-319
Open, -319
moved -2
Now, -321
FG ML away
+266
▲ from
+265
Open, +265
moved +1
Now, +266
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Pinnacle | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model DET 51% / tie 22% / NO 28% | (+177) | +184 | NO | +0.4 | — |
| 1st quarter total we project 9.4 pts | 10 (-121) | -119 | Under 10 | +1.6 | Lean |
| 1st quarter margin we project DET by 2.3 | -3 (+101) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets | |||||
| Moneyline model DET 69% | (+266) | +218 | NO | +5.1 | Wager |
| Spread model DET -6.3 | -7 (-108) | -109 | NO +7 | +1.8 | Lean |
| Game total model 47.5 pts | 49.5 (-100) | -126 | Under 49.5 | +7.6 ★ | Gold |
Every change we made, and why
Fri 10:41a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 74.2pp
to 72.0pp.
-2.2pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 45.6pp
to 50.8pp.
+5.2pp ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 32.8pp
to 27.6pp.
-5.2pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.48
to 9.39.
+0.9 ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 1.24
to 2.29.
+1.1 ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.57
to 47.53.
+3.0 ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -5.18
to -6.27.
-1.1 ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
FG win prob home moved from 65.5pp
to 68.5pp.
+3pp ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
Tier changed from —
to gold.
noted
Fri 10:41a ET
Top market changed from —
to FG Total Under.
noted
Fri 10:36a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 72.0pp
to 74.2pp.
+2.2pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 50.8pp
to 45.6pp.
-5.2pp ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 27.6pp
to 32.8pp.
+5.2pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.39
to 8.48.
-0.9 ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 2.29
to 1.24.
-1.1 ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
FG total (model) moved from 47.53
to 44.57.
-3.0 ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -6.27
to -5.18.
+1.1 ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
FG win prob home moved from 68.5pp
to 65.5pp.
-3pp ▼
Thu 8:32a ET
Best edge moved from 6.46
to 7.58.
+1.1 ▲
Thu 8:32a ET
Tier changed from wager
to gold.
noted
Thu 8:22a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 74.2pp
to 72.0pp.
-2.2pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 45.6pp
to 50.8pp.
+5.2pp ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 32.8pp
to 27.6pp.
-5.2pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.48
to 9.39.
+0.9 ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 1.24
to 2.29.
+1.1 ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.57
to 47.53.
+3.0 ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -5.18
to -6.27.
-1.1 ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
FG win prob home moved from 65.5pp
to 68.5pp.
+3pp ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Thu 8:22a ET
Top market changed from —
to FG Total Under.
noted
Thu 8:17a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 72.0pp
to 74.2pp.
+2.2pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 50.8pp
to 45.6pp.
-5.2pp ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 27.6pp
to 32.8pp.
+5.2pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.39
to 8.48.
-0.9 ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 2.29
to 1.24.
-1.1 ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
FG total (model) moved from 47.53
to 44.57.
-3.0 ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -6.27
to -5.18.
+1.1 ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
FG win prob home moved from 68.5pp
to 65.5pp.
-3pp ▼
Tue 4:59a ET
FG total (model) moved from 48.13
to 47.53.
-0.6 ▼
Tue 4:59a ET
Best edge moved from 5.13
to 6.68.
+1.6 ▲
Tue 4:59a ET
Top market changed from FG ML away
to FG Total Under.
noted
Mon 8:16a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 74.2pp
to 72.0pp.
-2.2pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 45.6pp
to 50.8pp.
+5.2pp ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 32.8pp
to 27.6pp.
-5.2pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.48
to 9.39.
+0.9 ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 1.24
to 2.29.
+1.1 ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.57
to 48.13.
+3.6 ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -5.18
to -6.27.
-1.1 ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
FG win prob home moved from 65.5pp
to 68.5pp.
+3pp ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Mon 8:16a ET
Top market changed from —
to FG ML away.
noted
Mon 8:11a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 72.0pp
to 74.2pp.
+2.2pp ▲
Mon 8:11a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 50.8pp
to 45.6pp.
-5.2pp ▼
Mon 8:11a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 27.6pp
to 32.8pp.
+5.2pp ▲
Mon 8:11a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.39
to 8.48.
-0.9 ▼
Mon 8:11a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 2.29
to 1.24.
-1.1 ▼
Mon 8:11a ET
FG total (model) moved from 48.13
to 44.57.
-3.6 ▼
Mon 8:11a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -6.27
to -5.18.
+1.1 ▲
Mon 8:11a ET
FG win prob home moved from 68.5pp
to 65.5pp.
-3pp ▼
Sun 9:52p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 70.4pp
to 72.0pp.
+1.6pp ▲
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Oct 23, 2022
DET @ DAL
/ 49.5 / -7
DAL 24: DET 6
3
FG, DET
Nov 23, 2025
TB @ LA
/ 49.5 / -7
LA 34: TB 7
14
TD, LA
Oct 1, 2023
LV @ LAC
/ 49 / -7
LAC 24: LV 17
14
TD, LAC
Jan 21, 2024
TB @ DET
/ 49.5 / -6
DET 31: TB 23
6
FG, DET
Nov 24, 2024
DET @ IND
/ 50.5 / +7
IND 6: DET 24
3
FG, IND
Sep 11, 2022
PHI @ DET
/ 49 / +6
DET 35: PHI 38
7
TD, DET
Nov 20, 2022
CLE @ BUF
/ 50.5 / -7.5
BUF 31: CLE 23
10
TD, CLE
Dec 17, 2023
WAS @ LA
/ 48.5 / -6.5
LA 28: WAS 20
3
FG, LA
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
100% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 7.5
, opening drive scored 50%