Lean
FG ML home
Best number on this game is FG ML home, +3.0 against Pinnacle.
The model has Tennessee Titans ahead at the end of the quarter 42% of the time, New York Jets 36%, and the quarter level 22%, with 7.3 pts projected. Tennessee Titans gets on the board 63% of the time and New York Jets 61%; the opening drive ends in points 44% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 89% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick.
Q1 total (model)
7.3
Pinnacle 7
TEN leads after Q1
42%
NYJ 36%, level 22%
NYJ scores in Q1
61%
context only, no pick
TEN scores in Q1
63%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
44%
league 42%
Game total (model)
38.7
Pinnacle 38.5
Similar games, Q1 scored
88%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
New York Jets scores in the 1st quarter
61%
Context only: its offence against TEN’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Tennessee Titans scores in the 1st quarter
63%
Context only: its offence against NYJ’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
44%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
89%
Context only: scoreless the other 11%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
NYJ
36%
New York Jets leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 61%, context only
TEN
42%
Tennessee Titans leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 63%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 35%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
TEN
We give them a 54% chance,
+3.0 edge at -112
Game margin
TEN
−1.4
The book is at -1,
+1.4 edge on
TEN
Total points in the game
38.7
The book is at 38.5,
we like the under, +0.9 edge
The model has Tennessee Titans winning 54% of the time, +3.0 better than Pinnacle’s -112 implies. We project Tennessee Titans by 1.4 pts against a posted TEN -1, which puts the value on TEN at +1.4. 38.7 pts projected in total against a posted 38.5: we like the under, +0.9.
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
57%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
7
Open, 7
unchanged
Now, 7
Q1 spread (H)
-0.5
Open, -0.5
unchanged
Now, -0.5
Q1 ML home
-111
▲ from
-115
Open, -115
moved +4
Now, -111
Q1 ML away
-103
▼ from
+100
Open, +100
moved -203
Now, -103
FG total
38.5
▼ from
39
Open, 39
moved -0.5
Now, 38.5
FG spread (H)
-1
▲ from
-2.5
Open, -2.5
moved +1.5
Now, -1
FG ML home
-112
▲ from
-141
Open, -141
moved +29
Now, -112
FG ML away
-101
▼ from
+125
Open, +125
moved -226
Now, -101
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Pinnacle | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model TEN 42% / tie 22% / NYJ 36% | (-111) | -115 | TEN | +2.7 | Lean |
| 1st quarter total we project 7.3 pts | 7 (-116) | -108 | Over 7 | +0.3 | — |
| 1st quarter margin we project TEN by 0.5 | -0.5 (+152) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets | |||||
| Moneyline model TEN 54% | (-112) | -118 | TEN | +3.0 | Lean |
| Spread model TEN -1.4 | -1 (-105) | -105 | TEN -1 | +1.4 | — |
| Game total model 38.7 pts | 38.5 (-101) | +103 | Under 38.5 | +0.9 | — |
Every change we made, and why
Fri 5:49p ET
Top market changed from Q1 ML home
to FG ML home.
noted
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 92.0pp
to 89.2pp.
-2.8pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 70.7pp
to 63.3pp.
-7.4pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 63.8pp
to 60.9pp.
-2.9pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.69
to 7.27.
-0.4 ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
FG total (model) moved from 39.07
to 38.73.
-0.3 ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.95
to -1.38.
+0.6 ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
FG win prob home moved from 56.0pp
to 54.2pp.
-1.8pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Fri 10:41a ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML home.
noted
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.2pp
to 92.0pp.
+2.8pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 63.3pp
to 70.7pp.
+7.4pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 60.9pp
to 63.8pp.
+2.9pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.27
to 7.69.
+0.4 ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
FG total (model) moved from 38.73
to 39.07.
+0.3 ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.38
to -1.95.
-0.6 ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
FG win prob home moved from 54.2pp
to 56.0pp.
+1.8pp ▲
Thu 9:12a ET
Temperature moved from 98.0°F
to 92.0°F.
-6°F ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 92.0pp
to 89.2pp.
-2.8pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 70.7pp
to 63.3pp.
-7.4pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 63.8pp
to 60.9pp.
-2.9pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.69
to 7.27.
-0.4 ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
FG total (model) moved from 39.07
to 38.73.
-0.3 ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.95
to -1.38.
+0.6 ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
FG win prob home moved from 56.0pp
to 54.2pp.
-1.8pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Thu 8:22a ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML home.
noted
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.2pp
to 92.0pp.
+2.8pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 63.3pp
to 70.7pp.
+7.4pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 60.9pp
to 63.8pp.
+2.9pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.27
to 7.69.
+0.4 ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
FG total (model) moved from 38.73
to 39.07.
+0.3 ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.38
to -1.95.
-0.6 ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
FG win prob home moved from 54.2pp
to 56.0pp.
+1.8pp ▲
Thu 3:08a ET
Temperature moved from 93.0°F
to 98.0°F.
+5°F ▲
Wed 1:48p ET
Top market changed from FG ML home
to Q1 ML home.
noted
Wed 11:16a ET
FG total (model) moved from 39.03
to 38.73.
-0.3 ▼
Wed 10:15a ET
Top market changed from Q1 ML home
to FG ML home.
noted
Wed 8:54a ET
FG total (model) moved from 38.23
to 39.03.
+0.8 ▲
Wed 8:54a ET
Top market changed from FG Total Under
to Q1 ML home.
noted
Wed 8:54a ET
Conditions changed from Rain
to Clouds.
noted
Wed 3:31a ET
FG total (model) moved from 39.03
to 38.23.
-0.8 ▼
Wed 3:31a ET
Top market changed from Q1 ML home
to FG Total Under.
noted
Wed 3:31a ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Rain.
noted
Tue 9:46p ET
Conditions changed from Clear
to Clouds.
noted
Tue 5:40p ET
Temperature moved from 58.0°F
to 93.0°F.
+35°F ▲
Tue 5:40p ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Clear.
noted
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 92.0pp
to 89.2pp.
-2.8pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 70.7pp
to 63.3pp.
-7.4pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 63.8pp
to 60.9pp.
-2.9pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.69
to 7.27.
-0.4 ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.95
to -1.38.
+0.6 ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
FG win prob home moved from 56.0pp
to 54.2pp.
-1.8pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Mon 8:16a ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML home.
noted
Mon 8:11a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.2pp
to 92.0pp.
+2.8pp ▲
Mon 8:11a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 63.3pp
to 70.7pp.
+7.4pp ▲
Mon 8:11a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 60.9pp
to 63.8pp.
+2.9pp ▲
Mon 8:11a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.27
to 7.69.
+0.4 ▲
Mon 8:11a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.38
to -1.95.
-0.6 ▼
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Sep 26, 2022
DAL @ NYG
/ 38.5 / -1
NYG 16: DAL 23
3
FG, DAL
Oct 13, 2022
WAS @ CHI
/ 38.5 / +1
CHI 7: WAS 12
0
scoreless
Sep 18, 2023
CLE @ PIT
/ 39 / +2.5
PIT 26: CLE 22
10
TD, PIT
Oct 1, 2023
BAL @ CLE
/ 38.5 / +2
CLE 3: BAL 28
10
TD, BAL
Nov 5, 2023
MIN @ ATL
/ 38.5 / -3.5
ATL 28: MIN 31
6
FG, ATL
Sep 17, 2023
IND @ HOU
/ 40 / +1
HOU 20: IND 31
21
TD, IND
Oct 2, 2022
CHI @ NYG
/ 39 / -3
NYG 20: CHI 12
13
FG, CHI
Sep 17, 2023
WAS @ DEN
/ 38.5 / -4
DEN 33: WAS 35
17
TD, DEN
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
88% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 10.0
, opening drive scored 12%