Public ledger, 112 picks graded, 2026 season, current markets

Every pick, graded. Publicly.
Nothing here was added after kickoff.

We publish every pick before kickoff and grade it once the game goes final. No screenshots, no retroactive edits, no "this would've won." This view shows the markets we still publish. Every pick from the markets we retired is still on file: see the full history, or download it all as CSV.

Current markets since Oct 27, 2026

No picks graded yet.

The record from the day we retired two markets, counting only the markets we still publish. It is the cleanest test of the current model, because the cut was decided before any of these games were played. The first of these picks grade with the next slate.

Current markets Full history (174)

Retired from picks: Game spread on Oct 27, 2026 (14-22 (3P), -8.6u), Q1 total Over on Oct 27, 2026 (6-16 (1P), -9.5u). Both lost money and lost to the closing line, so we stopped publishing them. They are left out of the figures below, not deleted: full history includes them.

Graded record 42–54 43.8% on graded picks, 16 push
Cumulative units +9.9u Gold Zone 2u, Wager 1u
ROI +7.9% vs. break-even
Average CLV +0.22pp lock → close fair move
Open picks 0 posted, not yet graded

Picks are graded at the lock price, the price available when the pick posted, not a better one found later, and staked by tier: Gold Zone 2u, Wager 1u, the sizes the badges recommend. ROI is net units over units staked. CLV is the de-vigged fair-probability move from lock to close. Tier thresholds are not yet empirically tuned and are held fixed until at least 100 picks settle, so early tier splits carry very little signal. Not investment advice.

Cumulative units, Sep 9, 2026 → Oct 26, 2026

+9.9u net, across 112 graded picks

+9.9u Current
112 Graded
0 Open
Sep 9 Oct 26
Gold Zone 6–2 75.0%, n=8 +14.3u on 26u staked
Wager 36–52 40.9%, n=88 -4.4u on 99u staked
By market 112 graded
MARKETRECORDWIN % UNITS ROI CLV
Q1 moneyline 16-21 (11P) 43.2% +6.2u +10.2% +0.24pp
Q1 total 3-5 (4P) 37.5% -1.6u -13.7% +0.69pp
Game moneyline 15-22 (1P) 40.5% +3.4u +8.9% -0.08pp
Game total 8-6 57.1% +1.9u +13.8% +0.54pp
Showing 26–50 of 112 graded picks, sorted newest first Export: CSV ↓  /  JSON ↓
POSTED TIER GAME PICK EDGE RESULT GRADE
Oct 16, 2026kickoff Oct 18 Wager LAC @ KC Game moneylineLAC (+311) +5.9 Final 6–22 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 16, 2026kickoff Oct 18 Wager DAL @ GB Game moneylineGB (-112) +5.4 Final 13–23 ✓ Win +0.89u
Oct 12, 2026kickoff Oct 12 Wager BUF @ LAR Game moneylineBUF (+162) +4.0 Final 37–34 ✓ Win +1.62u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager PHI @ JAX Game moneylinePHI (+288) +5.9 Q1 PHI 0–7 JAX · Final 17–19 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Gold PHI @ JAX Q1 moneylinePHI (+186) +14.8 Q1 PHI 0–7 JAX · Final 17–19 ✗ Loss -2.00u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager CIN @ MIA Game totalUnder 42.5 (-102) +5.3 Q1 CIN 7–7 MIA · Final 31–24 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Gold CIN @ MIA Q1 moneylineMIA (+166) +9.8 Q1 CIN 7–7 MIA · Final 31–24 Push +0.00u
Oct 11, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager CLE @ NYJ Game totalUnder 39 (-106) +4.9 Final 12–17 ✓ Win +0.94u
Oct 8, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager HOU @ TEN Game totalUnder 37.5 (+103) +4.9 Q1 HOU 3–3 TEN · Final 26–3 ✓ Win +1.03u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Gold HOU @ TEN Q1 moneylineTEN (+166) +7.5 Q1 HOU 3–3 TEN · Final 26–3 Push +0.00u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager LV @ NE Game moneylineNE (-187) +5.4 Q1 LV 7–14 NE · Final 17–45 ✓ Win +0.53u
Oct 11, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager LV @ NE Game totalUnder 45 (+103) +4.1 Q1 LV 7–14 NE · Final 17–45 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager LV @ NE Q1 moneylineLV (+139) +4.7 Q1 LV 7–14 NE · Final 17–45 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager NYG @ WSH Game moneylineNYG (+161) +4.3 Q1 NYG 3–6 WSH · Final 27–27 Push +0.00u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager NYG @ WSH Q1 moneylineNYG (+135) +5.0 Q1 NYG 3–6 WSH · Final 27–27 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 9, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager DEN @ LAC Game moneylineLAC (+169) +4.5 Q1 DEN 7–0 LAC · Final 23–17 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 9, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager DEN @ LAC Q1 moneylineLAC (+126) +4.4 Q1 DEN 7–0 LAC · Final 23–17 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager DET @ ARI Game moneylineARI (+218) +4.2 Q1 DET 0–7 ARI · Final 45–21 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager DET @ ARI Q1 moneylineARI (+134) +5.5 Q1 DET 0–7 ARI · Final 45–21 ✓ Win +1.34u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager SF @ SEA Q1 moneylineSF (+128) +4.5 Q1 SF 7–7 SEA · Final 32–29 Push +0.00u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager BAL @ ATL Q1 moneylineBAL (+133) +4.0 Q1 BAL 3–7 ATL · Final 30–23 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 30, 2026kickoff Oct 4 Wager IND @ WSH Game moneylineWSH (+177) +4.0 Q1 IND 0–6 WSH · Final 30–13 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 30, 2026kickoff Oct 4 Wager IND @ WSH Game totalUnder 47.5 (-102) +4.4 Q1 IND 0–6 WSH · Final 30–13 ✓ Win +0.98u
Sep 30, 2026kickoff Oct 4 Gold IND @ WSH Q1 moneylineWSH (+130) +9.7 Q1 IND 0–6 WSH · Final 30–13 ✓ Win +2.60u
Sep 30, 2026kickoff Oct 4 Wager GB @ TB Q1 totalUnder 7 (+112) +4.0 Q1 GB 0–0 TB · Final 17–14 ✓ Win +1.12u
Page 2 of 5, showing 26–50 of 112 picks
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