Public ledger, 76 picks graded, 2026 season

Every pick, graded. Publicly.
Nothing here was added after kickoff.

We publish every pick before kickoff and grade it once the game goes final. No screenshots, no retroactive edits, no "this would've won." This is the entire pick history, timestamped and verifiable.

Graded record 40–33 54.8% on graded picks, 3 push
Cumulative units +7.8u 1u flat / pick
ROI +10.2% vs. break-even
Average CLV -0.43pp lock → close fair move
Open picks 44 posted, not yet graded

Picks are graded 1u flat at the lock price, the price available when the pick posted, not a better one found later. CLV is the de-vigged fair-probability move from lock to close. Tier thresholds are not yet empirically tuned and are held fixed until at least 100 picks settle, so early tier splits carry very little signal. Not investment advice.

Cumulative units, Aug 21, 2026 → Sep 10, 2026

+7.8u net, across 76 graded picks

+7.8u Current
76 Graded
44 Open
Aug 21 Sep 10
Gold Zone 18–11 62.1%, n=29 +5.6u, 2.0u flat
Wager 15–14 51.7%, n=29 +3.1u, 1.0u flat
Lean 7–8 46.7%, n=15 -0.9u, 0.25u flat
By market 76 graded
MARKETRECORDWIN % UNITS ROI CLV
Q1 moneyline 1-0 (1P) 100.0% +1.3u +66.5% +1.54pp
Q1 total 0-1 0.0% -1.0u -100.0% -2.45pp
Game moneyline 10-8 (1P) 55.6% +3.9u +20.4% -0.40pp
Game spread 13-8 (1P) 61.9% +4.2u +19.1% -0.72pp
Game total 16-16 50.0% -0.6u -2.0% -0.33pp
Showing 26–50 of 76 graded picks, sorted newest first Export: CSV ↓  /  JSON ↓
POSTED TIER GAME PICK EDGE RESULT GRADE
Aug 27, 2026kickoff Aug 28 Wager SEA @ KC Game totalOver 36 (-108) +5.1 Final 9–9 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 27, 2026kickoff Aug 28 Gold TB @ JAX Game spreadJAX +3 (-114) +14.8 Final 0–19 ✓ Win +0.88u
Aug 27, 2026kickoff Aug 28 Gold TB @ JAX Game totalOver 35 (-110) +12.0 Final 0–19 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 28, 2026kickoff Aug 28 Wager HOU @ CAR Game totalUnder 35.5 (+107) +5.0 Final 13–16 ✓ Win +1.07u
Aug 27, 2026kickoff Aug 28 Wager MIN @ DEN Game moneylineMIN (+166) +4.3 Final 6–34 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 27, 2026kickoff Aug 28 Gold MIN @ DEN Game spreadDEN -3.5 (-104) +8.6 Final 6–34 ✓ Win +0.96u
Aug 27, 2026kickoff Aug 28 Lean MIN @ DEN Game totalOver 39 (+106) +3.3 Final 6–34 ✓ Win +1.06u
Aug 27, 2026kickoff Aug 28 Wager NO @ DAL Game moneylineNO (+118) +4.0 Final 27–24 ✓ Win +1.18u
Aug 27, 2026kickoff Aug 28 Wager NO @ DAL Game spreadNO +1.5 (-103) +4.1 Final 27–24 ✓ Win +0.97u
Aug 28, 2026kickoff Aug 28 Lean NO @ DAL Game totalUnder 38.5 (+106) +3.1 Final 27–24 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 28, 2026kickoff Aug 28 Lean ARI @ GB Game totalUnder 36 (+106) +3.3 Final 38–42 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 27, 2026kickoff Aug 27 Gold PIT @ BUF Game moneylineBUF (-159) +10.2 Final 27–28 ✓ Win +0.63u
Aug 27, 2026kickoff Aug 27 Lean PIT @ BUF Game spreadPIT +2.5 (+109) +3.3 Final 27–28 ✓ Win +1.09u
Aug 27, 2026kickoff Aug 27 Lean PIT @ BUF Game totalOver 35.5 (+103) +3.9 Final 27–28 ✓ Win +1.03u
Aug 27, 2026kickoff Aug 27 Gold NE @ CLE Game totalOver 34.5 (-114) +10.8 Final 13–37 ✓ Win +0.88u
Aug 27, 2026kickoff Aug 27 Gold LAR @ LAC Game moneylineLAR (+153) +14.7 Final 20–18 ✓ Win +1.53u
Aug 27, 2026kickoff Aug 27 Gold LAR @ LAC Game spreadLAR +3.5 (-108) +12.7 Final 20–18 ✓ Win +0.93u
Aug 27, 2026kickoff Aug 27 Gold LAR @ LAC Game totalOver 38.5 (-110) +9.6 Final 20–18 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 27, 2026kickoff Aug 27 Lean SF @ LV Game totalUnder 37 (+106) +3.1 Final 18–12 ✓ Win +1.06u
Aug 21, 2026kickoff Aug 23 Gold SEA @ TEN Game moneylineTEN (-216) +10.5 Final 16–19 ✓ Win +0.46u
Aug 21, 2026kickoff Aug 23 Wager SEA @ TEN Game totalOver 38 (-106) +5.2 Final 16–19 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 21, 2026kickoff Aug 22 Wager CHI @ CIN Game moneylineCHI (-125) +5.1 Final 9–27 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 21, 2026kickoff Aug 22 Wager CHI @ CIN Game spreadCHI -1.5 (-108) +5.6 Final 9–27 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 21, 2026kickoff Aug 22 Wager CHI @ CIN Game totalOver 36.5 (-118) +6.6 Final 9–27 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 21, 2026kickoff Aug 22 Gold NO @ LAR Game moneylineLAR (+105) +11.7 Final 0–34 ✓ Win +1.05u
Page 2 of 4, showing 26–50 of 76 picks
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