Public ledger, 174 picks graded, 2026 season

Every pick, graded. Publicly.
Nothing here was added after kickoff.

We publish every pick before kickoff and grade it once the game goes final. No screenshots, no retroactive edits, no "this would've won." This is the entire pick history, timestamped and verifiable, including markets we have since retired.

Current markets since Oct 27, 2026

No picks graded yet.

The record from the day we retired two markets, counting only the markets we still publish. It is the cleanest test of the current model, because the cut was decided before any of these games were played. The first of these picks grade with the next slate.

Current markets Full history (174)

Retired from picks: Game spread on Oct 27, 2026 (14-22 (3P), -8.6u), Q1 total Over on Oct 27, 2026 (6-16 (1P), -9.5u). Both lost money and lost to the closing line, so we stopped publishing them. They are included in the figures below.

Graded record 62–92 40.3% on graded picks, 20 push
Cumulative units -8.2u Gold Zone 2u, Wager 1u
ROI -4.4% vs. break-even
Average CLV -0.02pp lock → close fair move
Open picks 0 posted, not yet graded

Picks are graded at the lock price, the price available when the pick posted, not a better one found later, and staked by tier: Gold Zone 2u, Wager 1u, the sizes the badges recommend. ROI is net units over units staked. CLV is the de-vigged fair-probability move from lock to close. Tier thresholds are not yet empirically tuned and are held fixed until at least 100 picks settle, so early tier splits carry very little signal. Not investment advice.

Cumulative units, Sep 9, 2026 → Oct 26, 2026

-8.2u net, across 174 graded picks

-8.2u Current
174 Graded
0 Open
Sep 9 Oct 26
Gold Zone 6–3 66.7%, n=9 +12.3u on 28u staked
Wager 56–89 38.6%, n=145 -20.6u on 160u staked
By market 174 graded
MARKETRECORDWIN % UNITS ROI CLV
Q1 moneyline 16-21 (11P) 43.2% +6.2u +10.2% +0.24pp
Q1 total 9-21 (5P) 30.0% -11.1u -31.8% +0.30pp
Game moneyline 15-22 (1P) 40.5% +3.4u +8.9% -0.08pp
Game spread 14-22 (3P) 38.9% -8.6u -21.6% -0.76pp
Game total 8-6 57.1% +1.9u +13.8% +0.54pp
Showing 1–25 of 174 graded picks, sorted newest first Export: CSV ↓  /  JSON ↓
POSTED TIER GAME PICK EDGE RESULT GRADE
Oct 21, 2026kickoff Oct 26 Wager DAL @ PHI Game moneylinePHI (+179) +5.4 Q1 DAL 10–7 PHI · Final 38–21 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 21, 2026kickoff Oct 26 Wager DAL @ PHI Q1 moneylinePHI (+129) +5.4 Q1 DAL 10–7 PHI · Final 38–21 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 21, 2026kickoff Oct 25 Wager CIN @ BAL Game moneylineBAL (-125) +5.9 Q1 CIN 0–7 BAL · Final 35–13 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 21, 2026kickoff Oct 25 Wager CIN @ BAL Q1 totalOver 10 (+111) +6.1 Q1 CIN 0–7 BAL · Final 35–13 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 21, 2026kickoff Oct 25 Wager IND @ MIN Game spreadIND +6.5 (-110) +4.3 Q1 IND 7–0 MIN · Final 10–16 ✓ Win +0.91u
Oct 21, 2026kickoff Oct 25 Gold IND @ MIN Q1 moneylineIND (+174) +13.5 Q1 IND 7–0 MIN · Final 10–16 ✓ Win +3.48u
Oct 21, 2026kickoff Oct 25 Wager IND @ MIN Q1 totalOver 7.5 (+108) +4.0 Q1 IND 7–0 MIN · Final 10–16 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 21, 2026kickoff Oct 25 Wager MIA @ NYJ Game spreadMIA +4.5 (-107) +5.1 Q1 MIA 14–7 NYJ · Final 28–25 ✓ Win +0.93u
Oct 21, 2026kickoff Oct 25 Wager MIA @ NYJ Q1 moneylineMIA (+148) +6.0 Q1 MIA 14–7 NYJ · Final 28–25 ✓ Win +1.48u
Oct 21, 2026kickoff Oct 25 Wager SF @ ATL Game moneylineATL (+156) +4.3 Q1 SF 7–3 ATL · Final 20–29 ✓ Win +1.56u
Oct 21, 2026kickoff Oct 25 Wager SF @ ATL Q1 totalOver 10 (+111) +5.5 Q1 SF 7–3 ATL · Final 20–29 Push +0.00u
Oct 21, 2026kickoff Oct 25 Wager TB @ CAR Game moneylineTB (+149) +4.0 Q1 TB 7–0 CAR · Final 43–13 ✓ Win +1.49u
Oct 21, 2026kickoff Oct 25 Wager TB @ CAR Q1 moneylineTB (+130) +4.6 Q1 TB 7–0 CAR · Final 43–13 ✓ Win +1.30u
Oct 23, 2026kickoff Oct 25 Wager DEN @ ARI Game moneylineARI (+188) +4.0 Q1 DEN 6–0 ARI · Final 30–16 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 21, 2026kickoff Oct 25 Wager DEN @ ARI Q1 moneylineARI (+128) +4.9 Q1 DEN 6–0 ARI · Final 30–16 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 21, 2026kickoff Oct 25 Wager GB @ DET Game moneylineGB (+156) +4.7 Q1 GB 7–7 DET · Final 17–20 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 21, 2026kickoff Oct 25 Gold GB @ DET Q1 moneylineGB (+134) +7.8 Q1 GB 7–7 DET · Final 17–20 Push +0.00u
Oct 22, 2026kickoff Oct 25 Wager LAR @ LV Game moneylineLAR (-192) +5.8 Final 35–21 ✓ Win +0.52u
Oct 23, 2026kickoff Oct 25 Wager KC @ SEA Q1 totalOver 7.5 (+108) +4.0 Q1 KC 0–0 SEA ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 21, 2026kickoff Oct 22 Wager NE @ CHI Q1 moneylineNE (+126) +4.0 Q1 NE 0–10 CHI ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 21, 2026kickoff Oct 22 Wager NE @ CHI Q1 totalUnder 9.5 (+112) +4.3 Q1 NE 0–10 CHI ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 14, 2026kickoff Oct 19 Wager WSH @ SF Game moneylineWSH (+310) +4.5 Q1 WSH 3–13 SF · Final 17–23 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 19, 2026kickoff Oct 19 Wager WSH @ SF Q1 moneylineSF (-207) +6.8 Q1 WSH 3–13 SF · Final 17–23 ✓ Win +0.48u
Oct 17, 2026kickoff Oct 18 Wager HOU @ JAX Q1 totalOver 7.5 (+108) +4.3 Q1 HOU 7–0 JAX ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 15, 2026kickoff Oct 18 Wager BAL @ CLE Game spreadBAL -4.5 (+109) +4.6 Q1 BAL 10–0 CLE · Final 10–13 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Page 1 of 7, showing 1–25 of 174 picks
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