Public ledger, 174 picks graded, 2026 season

Every pick, graded. Publicly.
Nothing here was added after kickoff.

We publish every pick before kickoff and grade it once the game goes final. No screenshots, no retroactive edits, no "this would've won." This is the entire pick history, timestamped and verifiable, including markets we have since retired.

Current markets since Oct 27, 2026

No picks graded yet.

The record from the day we retired two markets, counting only the markets we still publish. It is the cleanest test of the current model, because the cut was decided before any of these games were played. The first of these picks grade with the next slate.

Current markets Full history (174)

Retired from picks: Game spread on Oct 27, 2026 (14-22 (3P), -8.6u), Q1 total Over on Oct 27, 2026 (6-16 (1P), -9.5u). Both lost money and lost to the closing line, so we stopped publishing them. They are included in the figures below.

Graded record 62–92 40.3% on graded picks, 20 push
Cumulative units -8.2u Gold Zone 2u, Wager 1u
ROI -4.4% vs. break-even
Average CLV -0.02pp lock → close fair move
Open picks 0 posted, not yet graded

Picks are graded at the lock price, the price available when the pick posted, not a better one found later, and staked by tier: Gold Zone 2u, Wager 1u, the sizes the badges recommend. ROI is net units over units staked. CLV is the de-vigged fair-probability move from lock to close. Tier thresholds are not yet empirically tuned and are held fixed until at least 100 picks settle, so early tier splits carry very little signal. Not investment advice.

Cumulative units, Sep 9, 2026 → Oct 26, 2026

-8.2u net, across 174 graded picks

-8.2u Current
174 Graded
0 Open
Sep 9 Oct 26
Gold Zone 6–3 66.7%, n=9 +12.3u on 28u staked
Wager 56–89 38.6%, n=145 -20.6u on 160u staked
By market 174 graded
MARKETRECORDWIN % UNITS ROI CLV
Q1 moneyline 16-21 (11P) 43.2% +6.2u +10.2% +0.24pp
Q1 total 9-21 (5P) 30.0% -11.1u -31.8% +0.30pp
Game moneyline 15-22 (1P) 40.5% +3.4u +8.9% -0.08pp
Game spread 14-22 (3P) 38.9% -8.6u -21.6% -0.76pp
Game total 8-6 57.1% +1.9u +13.8% +0.54pp
Showing 101–125 of 174 graded picks, sorted newest first Export: CSV ↓  /  JSON ↓
POSTED TIER GAME PICK EDGE RESULT GRADE
Sep 27, 2026kickoff Sep 27 Wager CAR @ CLE Q1 totalOver 7.5 (+109) +4.3 Q1 CAR 0–0 CLE ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 25, 2026kickoff Sep 27 Wager CIN @ PIT Game moneylinePIT (+155) +4.6 Final 27–30 ✓ Win +1.55u
Sep 27, 2026kickoff Sep 27 Wager HOU @ IND Q1 totalOver 7.5 (+106) +4.1 Q1 HOU 0–3 IND ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 23, 2026kickoff Sep 27 Wager KC @ MIA Game moneylineMIA (+489) +4.7 Final 24–10 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 26, 2026kickoff Sep 27 Wager LAC @ BUF Q1 moneylineBUF (-205) +4.2 Q1 LAC 10–0 BUF ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 27, 2026kickoff Sep 27 Wager NYJ @ DET Game spreadDET -7 (+100) +5.4 Q1 NYJ 0–0 DET · Final 24–31 Push +0.00u
Sep 27, 2026kickoff Sep 27 Wager NYJ @ DET Game totalUnder 48.5 (+105) +4.0 Q1 NYJ 0–0 DET · Final 24–31 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 23, 2026kickoff Sep 27 Wager NYJ @ DET Q1 moneylineDET (-196) +5.8 Q1 NYJ 0–0 DET · Final 24–31 Push +0.00u
Sep 24, 2026kickoff Sep 27 Wager SEA @ WSH Game moneylineWSH (+294) +4.7 Q1 SEA 0–7 WSH · Final 31–33 ✓ Win +2.94u
Sep 23, 2026kickoff Sep 27 Gold SEA @ WSH Q1 moneylineWSH (+163) +10.2 Q1 SEA 0–7 WSH · Final 31–33 ✓ Win +3.26u
Sep 23, 2026kickoff Sep 27 Wager SEA @ WSH Q1 totalUnder 7 (+113) +4.3 Q1 SEA 0–7 WSH · Final 31–33 Push +0.00u
Sep 23, 2026kickoff Sep 27 Wager TEN @ NYG Game moneylineNYG (-149) +5.8 Q1 TEN 0–3 NYG · Final 7–12 ✓ Win +0.67u
Sep 23, 2026kickoff Sep 27 Wager TEN @ NYG Game totalUnder 39.5 (-107) +4.1 Q1 TEN 0–3 NYG · Final 7–12 ✓ Win +0.93u
Sep 23, 2026kickoff Sep 27 Wager TEN @ NYG Q1 totalUnder 7 (+112) +4.4 Q1 TEN 0–3 NYG · Final 7–12 ✓ Win +1.12u
Sep 24, 2026kickoff Sep 27 Wager NE @ JAX Game spreadNE +2.5 (+108) +5.9 Final 6–35 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 27, 2026kickoff Sep 27 Wager ARI @ SF Game moneylineARI (+291) +4.8 Final 30–36 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 27, 2026kickoff Sep 27 Wager MIN @ TB Q1 totalOver 7.5 (+109) +4.5 Q1 MIN 10–7 TB ✓ Win +1.09u
Sep 24, 2026kickoff Sep 27 Wager BAL @ DAL Game moneylineDAL (+161) +4.0 Final 34–31 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 26, 2026kickoff Sep 27 Wager LV @ NO Game spreadNO -3.5 (+103) +5.0 Q1 LV 3–6 NO · Final 35–27 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 23, 2026kickoff Sep 27 Wager LV @ NO Q1 moneylineLV (+129) +5.8 Q1 LV 3–6 NO · Final 35–27 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 27, 2026kickoff Sep 27 Wager LAR @ DEN Game moneylineLAR (-124) +4.8 Final 26–30 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 23, 2026kickoff Sep 24 Wager ATL @ GB Game moneylineATL (+212) +4.3 Q1 ATL 7–7 GB · Final 35–14 ✓ Win +2.12u
Sep 23, 2026kickoff Sep 24 Wager ATL @ GB Q1 moneylineATL (+144) +5.3 Q1 ATL 7–7 GB · Final 35–14 Push +0.00u
Sep 19, 2026kickoff Sep 21 Wager NYG @ LAR Game spreadLAR -7.5 (+110) +4.5 Q1 NYG 0–7 LAR · Final 6–28 ✓ Win +1.10u
Sep 21, 2026kickoff Sep 21 Gold NYG @ LAR Q1 moneylineNYG (+149) +8.0 Q1 NYG 0–7 LAR · Final 6–28 ✗ Loss -2.00u
Page 5 of 7, showing 101–125 of 174 picks
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