Public ledger, 174 picks graded, 2026 season

Every pick, graded. Publicly.
Nothing here was added after kickoff.

We publish every pick before kickoff and grade it once the game goes final. No screenshots, no retroactive edits, no "this would've won." This is the entire pick history, timestamped and verifiable, including markets we have since retired.

Current markets since Oct 27, 2026

No picks graded yet.

The record from the day we retired two markets, counting only the markets we still publish. It is the cleanest test of the current model, because the cut was decided before any of these games were played. The first of these picks grade with the next slate.

Current markets Full history (174)

Retired from picks: Game spread on Oct 27, 2026 (14-22 (3P), -8.6u), Q1 total Over on Oct 27, 2026 (6-16 (1P), -9.5u). Both lost money and lost to the closing line, so we stopped publishing them. They are included in the figures below.

Graded record 62–92 40.3% on graded picks, 20 push
Cumulative units -8.2u Gold Zone 2u, Wager 1u
ROI -4.4% vs. break-even
Average CLV -0.02pp lock → close fair move
Open picks 0 posted, not yet graded

Picks are graded at the lock price, the price available when the pick posted, not a better one found later, and staked by tier: Gold Zone 2u, Wager 1u, the sizes the badges recommend. ROI is net units over units staked. CLV is the de-vigged fair-probability move from lock to close. Tier thresholds are not yet empirically tuned and are held fixed until at least 100 picks settle, so early tier splits carry very little signal. Not investment advice.

Cumulative units, Sep 9, 2026 → Oct 26, 2026

-8.2u net, across 174 graded picks

-8.2u Current
174 Graded
0 Open
Sep 9 Oct 26
Gold Zone 6–3 66.7%, n=9 +12.3u on 28u staked
Wager 56–89 38.6%, n=145 -20.6u on 160u staked
By market 174 graded
MARKETRECORDWIN % UNITS ROI CLV
Q1 moneyline 16-21 (11P) 43.2% +6.2u +10.2% +0.24pp
Q1 total 9-21 (5P) 30.0% -11.1u -31.8% +0.30pp
Game moneyline 15-22 (1P) 40.5% +3.4u +8.9% -0.08pp
Game spread 14-22 (3P) 38.9% -8.6u -21.6% -0.76pp
Game total 8-6 57.1% +1.9u +13.8% +0.54pp
Showing 76–100 of 174 graded picks, sorted newest first Export: CSV ↓  /  JSON ↓
POSTED TIER GAME PICK EDGE RESULT GRADE
Sep 30, 2026kickoff Oct 4 Wager IND @ WSH Game moneylineWSH (+177) +4.0 Q1 IND 0–6 WSH · Final 30–13 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 30, 2026kickoff Oct 4 Wager IND @ WSH Game totalUnder 47.5 (-102) +4.4 Q1 IND 0–6 WSH · Final 30–13 ✓ Win +0.98u
Sep 30, 2026kickoff Oct 4 Gold IND @ WSH Q1 moneylineWSH (+130) +9.7 Q1 IND 0–6 WSH · Final 30–13 ✓ Win +2.60u
Sep 30, 2026kickoff Oct 4 Wager ARI @ NYG Game spreadNYG +1 (+105) +4.3 Final 24–36 ✓ Win +1.05u
Sep 30, 2026kickoff Oct 4 Wager DAL @ HOU Game spreadDAL +2.5 (+113) +4.6 Final 34–30 ✓ Win +1.13u
Oct 3, 2026kickoff Oct 4 Wager GB @ TB Game spreadGB -3.5 (+111) +4.4 Q1 GB 0–0 TB · Final 17–14 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 30, 2026kickoff Oct 4 Wager GB @ TB Q1 totalUnder 7 (+112) +4.0 Q1 GB 0–0 TB · Final 17–14 ✓ Win +1.12u
Sep 30, 2026kickoff Oct 4 Wager JAX @ CIN Game spreadJAX +2.5 (-100) +5.2 Final 22–17 ✓ Win +1.00u
Oct 1, 2026kickoff Oct 4 Wager JAX @ CIN Game totalUnder 51 (+105) +4.0 Final 22–17 ✓ Win +1.05u
Oct 1, 2026kickoff Oct 4 Wager LAR @ PHI Game spreadPHI +3 (+115) +4.8 Q1 LAR 3–3 PHI · Final 24–20 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 3, 2026kickoff Oct 4 Wager LAR @ PHI Game totalOver 43.5 (+102) +4.1 Q1 LAR 3–3 PHI · Final 24–20 ✓ Win +1.02u
Oct 2, 2026kickoff Oct 4 Wager LAR @ PHI Q1 moneylinePHI (+127) +4.1 Q1 LAR 3–3 PHI · Final 24–20 Push +0.00u
Sep 30, 2026kickoff Oct 4 Wager NE @ BUF Game moneylineNE (+245) +4.6 Q1 NE 7–0 BUF · Final 29–26 ✓ Win +2.45u
Sep 30, 2026kickoff Oct 4 Wager NE @ BUF Q1 moneylineBUF (-201) +4.0 Q1 NE 7–0 BUF · Final 29–26 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 2, 2026kickoff Oct 4 Wager NYJ @ CHI Game spreadCHI -3.5 (-108) +5.4 Q1 NYJ 0–7 CHI · Final 12–23 ✓ Win +0.93u
Sep 30, 2026kickoff Oct 4 Wager NYJ @ CHI Q1 moneylineNYJ (+129) +4.4 Q1 NYJ 0–7 CHI · Final 12–23 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 30, 2026kickoff Oct 4 Wager MIA @ MIN Game moneylineMIA (+419) +5.8 Final 10–15 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 4, 2026kickoff Oct 4 Wager DEN @ SF Game spreadDEN +2.5 (+107) +5.4 Final 14–24 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 30, 2026kickoff Oct 4 Wager KC @ LV Game spreadKC -4.5 (-101) +5.2 Q1 KC 7–7 LV · Final 30–27 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 30, 2026kickoff Oct 4 Wager KC @ LV Q1 moneylineLV (+130) +6.0 Q1 KC 7–7 LV · Final 30–27 Push +0.00u
Sep 30, 2026kickoff Oct 4 Wager DET @ CAR Q1 moneylineCAR (+126) +5.2 Q1 DET 3–7 CAR ✓ Win +1.26u
Sep 30, 2026kickoff Oct 4 Wager DET @ CAR Q1 totalUnder 9.5 (+110) +5.3 Q1 DET 3–7 CAR ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 23, 2026kickoff Sep 28 Wager PHI @ CHI Game spreadCHI +4.5 (-103) +4.2 Q1 PHI 0–7 CHI · Final 7–27 ✓ Win +0.97u
Sep 23, 2026kickoff Sep 28 Wager PHI @ CHI Q1 moneylineCHI (+136) +4.9 Q1 PHI 0–7 CHI · Final 7–27 ✓ Win +1.36u
Sep 23, 2026kickoff Sep 28 Wager PHI @ CHI Q1 totalOver 7.5 (+108) +4.6 Q1 PHI 0–7 CHI · Final 7–27 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Page 4 of 7, showing 76–100 of 174 picks
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