Public ledger, 174 picks graded, 2026 season

Every pick, graded. Publicly.
Nothing here was added after kickoff.

We publish every pick before kickoff and grade it once the game goes final. No screenshots, no retroactive edits, no "this would've won." This is the entire pick history, timestamped and verifiable, including markets we have since retired.

Current markets since Oct 27, 2026

No picks graded yet.

The record from the day we retired two markets, counting only the markets we still publish. It is the cleanest test of the current model, because the cut was decided before any of these games were played. The first of these picks grade with the next slate.

Current markets Full history (174)

Retired from picks: Game spread on Oct 27, 2026 (14-22 (3P), -8.6u), Q1 total Over on Oct 27, 2026 (6-16 (1P), -9.5u). Both lost money and lost to the closing line, so we stopped publishing them. They are included in the figures below.

Graded record 62–92 40.3% on graded picks, 20 push
Cumulative units -8.2u Gold Zone 2u, Wager 1u
ROI -4.4% vs. break-even
Average CLV -0.02pp lock → close fair move
Open picks 0 posted, not yet graded

Picks are graded at the lock price, the price available when the pick posted, not a better one found later, and staked by tier: Gold Zone 2u, Wager 1u, the sizes the badges recommend. ROI is net units over units staked. CLV is the de-vigged fair-probability move from lock to close. Tier thresholds are not yet empirically tuned and are held fixed until at least 100 picks settle, so early tier splits carry very little signal. Not investment advice.

Cumulative units, Sep 9, 2026 → Oct 26, 2026

-8.2u net, across 174 graded picks

-8.2u Current
174 Graded
0 Open
Sep 9 Oct 26
Gold Zone 6–3 66.7%, n=9 +12.3u on 28u staked
Wager 56–89 38.6%, n=145 -20.6u on 160u staked
By market 174 graded
MARKETRECORDWIN % UNITS ROI CLV
Q1 moneyline 16-21 (11P) 43.2% +6.2u +10.2% +0.24pp
Q1 total 9-21 (5P) 30.0% -11.1u -31.8% +0.30pp
Game moneyline 15-22 (1P) 40.5% +3.4u +8.9% -0.08pp
Game spread 14-22 (3P) 38.9% -8.6u -21.6% -0.76pp
Game total 8-6 57.1% +1.9u +13.8% +0.54pp
Showing 26–50 of 174 graded picks, sorted newest first Export: CSV ↓  /  JSON ↓
POSTED TIER GAME PICK EDGE RESULT GRADE
Oct 14, 2026kickoff Oct 18 Wager BAL @ CLE Q1 moneylineCLE (+130) +4.1 Q1 BAL 10–0 CLE · Final 10–13 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 14, 2026kickoff Oct 18 Wager BAL @ CLE Q1 totalOver 7.5 (+110) +6.5 Q1 BAL 10–0 CLE · Final 10–13 ✓ Win +1.10u
Oct 14, 2026kickoff Oct 18 Wager CAR @ PHI Game spreadPHI -1 (-102) +4.8 Q1 CAR 3–0 PHI · Final 25–14 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 15, 2026kickoff Oct 18 Wager CAR @ PHI Q1 moneylinePHI (+124) +4.0 Q1 CAR 3–0 PHI · Final 25–14 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 14, 2026kickoff Oct 18 Wager CAR @ PHI Q1 totalOver 7.5 (+114) +6.5 Q1 CAR 3–0 PHI · Final 25–14 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 15, 2026kickoff Oct 18 Wager CHI @ ATL Game moneylineCHI (-110) +4.2 Q1 CHI 14–0 ATL · Final 31–23 ✓ Win +0.91u
Oct 14, 2026kickoff Oct 18 Wager CHI @ ATL Q1 totalUnder 9.5 (+109) +4.1 Q1 CHI 14–0 ATL · Final 31–23 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 18, 2026kickoff Oct 18 Wager NYJ @ NE Q1 moneylineNE (-206) +4.0 Q1 NYJ 3–7 NE ✓ Win +0.49u
Oct 17, 2026kickoff Oct 18 Wager PIT @ TB Game spreadTB +2.5 (+101) +4.0 Final 26–19 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 14, 2026kickoff Oct 18 Wager TEN @ IND Game spreadIND -7 (-104) +5.7 Final 26–20 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 14, 2026kickoff Oct 18 Gold ARI @ LAR Q1 moneylineLAR (-297) +7.6 Q1 ARI 3–3 LAR Push +0.00u
Oct 14, 2026kickoff Oct 18 Wager BUF @ LV Game spreadBUF -4.5 (-108) +5.1 Q1 BUF 3–7 LV · Final 33–30 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 18, 2026kickoff Oct 18 Wager BUF @ LV Game totalUnder 53.5 (+103) +4.4 Q1 BUF 3–7 LV · Final 33–30 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 14, 2026kickoff Oct 18 Wager BUF @ LV Q1 moneylineLV (+136) +6.6 Q1 BUF 3–7 LV · Final 33–30 ✓ Win +1.36u
Oct 16, 2026kickoff Oct 18 Wager LAC @ KC Game moneylineLAC (+311) +5.9 Final 6–22 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 16, 2026kickoff Oct 18 Wager DAL @ GB Game moneylineGB (-112) +5.4 Final 13–23 ✓ Win +0.89u
Oct 14, 2026kickoff Oct 15 Wager SEA @ DEN Q1 totalOver 7.5 (+115) +5.9 Q1 SEA 3–0 DEN ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 12, 2026kickoff Oct 12 Wager BUF @ LAR Game moneylineBUF (+162) +4.0 Final 37–34 ✓ Win +1.62u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager PHI @ JAX Game moneylinePHI (+288) +5.9 Q1 PHI 0–7 JAX · Final 17–19 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Gold PHI @ JAX Q1 moneylinePHI (+186) +14.8 Q1 PHI 0–7 JAX · Final 17–19 ✗ Loss -2.00u
Oct 11, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager PHI @ JAX Q1 totalOver 7.5 (+107) +4.1 Q1 PHI 0–7 JAX · Final 17–19 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager CIN @ MIA Game spreadMIA +7 (-106) +5.5 Q1 CIN 7–7 MIA · Final 31–24 Push +0.00u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager CIN @ MIA Game totalUnder 42.5 (-102) +5.3 Q1 CIN 7–7 MIA · Final 31–24 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Gold CIN @ MIA Q1 moneylineMIA (+166) +9.8 Q1 CIN 7–7 MIA · Final 31–24 Push +0.00u
Oct 11, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager CLE @ NYJ Game spreadCLE +2.5 (+104) +4.6 Final 12–17 ✗ Loss -1.00u
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